Argentina’s trade deficit swang to a USD 277 million surplus in October of 2018 compared to a USD 927 million gap a year ago and expectations of a USD 400 million surplus. It is the second surplus over the last two years. Exports climbed 1.4 percent (vs -4.8 percent in September) to USD 5354 million, mainly nudged by a 3.9 percent increase in sales of food, beverages & tobacco (3.9 percent), transport equipment (26.2 percent) and live animals & animal products (31.4 percent). Meantime, exports declined 10.3 percent for agricultural products, such as wheat and rye and cranberries; 14.8 percent for oils and fats and 20.3 percent for chemical products. On the other hand, imports plunged 18.2 percent (vs -21.2 percent) to USD 5077 million, mainly dragged by sharp falls in purchases of passenger motor vehicles (-48.2 percent), machinery (-36.6 percent), parts and accessories for capital goods (-27.2 percent), and mineral products (-17.4 percent). Balance of Trade in Argentina averaged 213.51 USD Million from 1957 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2543 USD Million in May of 2009 and a record low of -1494 USD Million in November of 2017.
Balance of Trade in Argentina is expected to be -1900.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Argentina to stand at -1150.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Balance of Trade is projected to trend around -1700.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.