Argentina’s trade deficit shifted to a USD 1369 million surplus in December of 2018 compared to a USD 786 million gap a year ago and above market expectations of a USD 425 million surplus. It was the largest trade surplus since May 2014, as exports soared 15.4 percent year-on-year (vs +14.6 percent in November) to USD 5282 million in December. Sales were mainly driven by primary products (36.9 percent); agricultural manufacturing (11.8 percent) and industrial manufacturing (9.9 percent) while exports of oil & gasoline declined (13.5 percent). Meantime, imports dropped 27.1 percent to USD 3913 million, after declining 29.2 percent in the previous month. Purchases fell for vehicles (-62.8 percent); capital goods (-38.0 percent); fuels & lubricant (-33.9 percent) and consumption goods (-33.7 percent). For the whole 2018, the trade deficit stood at USD 3820 billion, compared to a USD 8309 billion shortfall in 2017. Balance of Trade in Argentina averaged 216.09 USD Million from 1957 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2543 USD Million in May of 2009 and a record low of -1494 USD Million in November of 2017.
Balance of Trade in Argentina is expected to be -1200.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Argentina to stand at -900.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 200.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.