Argentina - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

Argentina will continue to struggle with lackluster growth for the next few years, as it begins to digest the challenges behind the implementation of President Macri’s economic reforms and the woes coming from its key trading partner Brazil. Structural improvements should materialize in the long run as reforms mature. In the meantime, private consumption should benefit from slowing inflation (albeit still above the administration’s 12-17 percent target for 2017) and credit expansion. As the fiscal deficit continues to narrow and the government’s commitments gain credibility, consumer and business confidence and rising construction activity should lead to faster FDI and fixed investment growth rates. This page has economic forecasts for Argentina including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Argentina economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 -0.8 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.10 8.4 8 7.7 7.6 7.7 percent
Inflation Rate 26.40 28 30 27 26 17 percent
Interest Rate 40.00 40 40 37.25 37.25 25 percent
Balance of Trade -1285.00 -920 -1000 -1200 -1340 -900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 54.7 54.7 54.9 54.9 56 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 27.30
29.09 30.33 31.61 32.96 38.92
Stock Market 26263.65
points
25003 23074 21297 19655 14260
Government Bond 10y 6.22
percent
5.95 5.82 5.83 5.86 5.85
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent
-0.8 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60
percent
2 2 2.3 2.4 2.6
GDP 637.59
USD Billion
560 560 680 680 650
GDP Constant Prices 708474.00
ARS Million
728391 737621 724769 804969 775719
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 154687.00
ARS Million
157781 163092 158245 151449 171516
GDP per capita 10398.09
USD
10280 10280 13100 13100 13400
GDP per capita PPP 18933.91
USD
18200 18200 19000 19000 18800
GDP From Agriculture 36742.24
ARS Million
33182 34045 37587 108632 35804
GDP From Construction 23374.70
ARS Million
23332 22928 23912 21956 24113
GDP From Manufacturing 113617.11
ARS Million
127139 131839 116230 127434 138648
GDP From Mining 21084.47
ARS Million
21603 22086 21569 21068 23226
GDP From Public Administration 33079.67
ARS Million
33437 34241 33840 33812 36009
GDP From Services 93812.72
ARS Million
97181 100117 95970 98443 105289
GDP From Transport 58306.66
ARS Million
59966 59703 59648 62906 62787
GDP From Utilities 12851.85
ARS Million
12729 12307 13147 12745 12943
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.10
percent
8.4 8 7.7 7.6 7.7
Employed Persons 11749.00
Thousand
11750 15000 11744 11743 15500
Unemployed Persons 1183.00
Thousand
1100 1250 950 940 1000
Employment Rate 42.40
percent
43.06 43.2 43.09 43.11 45
Labor Force Participation Rate 46.70
percent
46.56 46.46 46.61 46.47 46.51
Wages 26163.00
ARS/Month
29000 40000 30000 25887 45000
Minimum Wages 10000.00
ARS/Month
9500 9500 10000 11155 11000
Wages In Manufacturing 2781.74
Index Points
3250 3300 3400 4590 3600
Population 44.05
Million
44.38 44.38 44.61 44.61 45.2
Wages Low Skilled 9910.00
ARS/Month
10540 10540 11700 11700 12300
Wages High Skilled 20000.00
ARS/Month
23000 23000 25500 25500 26700
Wage Growth 3.51
Percent
1.6 1.83 1.87 1.89 1.89
Living Wage Family 11300.00
ARS/Month
12600 12600 13000 13000 13400
Living Wage Individual 7620.00
ARS/Month
7600 7600 8000 8000 8400
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 26.40
percent
28 30 27 26 17
Inflation Rate Mom 2.10
percent
2.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 139.59
Index Points
150 162 169 176 222
GDP Deflator 1690.40
Index Points
1857 1780 2021 2102 2130
Producer Prices 949.61
Index Points
1329 1263 1206 1111 1684
Export Prices 160.20
Index Points
161 161 160 160 160
Import Prices 119.40
Index Points
119 127 121 121 129
Producer Prices Change 32.40
percent
40 33 27 17 13
Inflation Expectations 25.00
Percent
22 22 22 22.46 20
CPI Housing Utilities 175.95
Index Points
165 202 208 222 277
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 40.00
percent
40 40 37.25 37.25 25
Interbank Rate 38.44
percent
38.44 38.44 35.69 35.69 23.44
Money Supply M0 1043632.00
ARS Million
1084761 1283097 1174648 1218990 1432662
Money Supply M1 1253655.70
ARS Million
1300815 827047 1400955 1450673 957789
Money Supply M2 1724923.50
ARS Million
1817454 1280000 1971286 2047684 1370000
Money Supply M3 2786771.60
ARS Million
3025016 1671923 3344684 3504800 1851923
Deposit Interest Rate 21.55
percent
21.55 21.55 18.8 18.8 6.55
Foreign Exchange Reserves 44682.00
USD Million
50000 52500 53000 54000 56000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3436751.93
USD Million
3476196 3482486 3485624 3486856 3488458
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1285.00
USD Million
-920 -1000 -1200 -1340 -900
Exports 5162.00
USD Million
4550 4600 5400 4966 5000
Imports 6447.00
USD Million
6620 6500 6800 6306 6950
Current Account -9623.00
USD Million
-8800 -9100 -9200 -9328 -8400
Current Account to GDP -4.80
percent
-2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -1.9
External Debt 253740.59
USD Million
267887 175000 277308 281922 170000
Terms of Trade 134.20
Index Points
136 126 133 132 124
Foreign Direct Investment 192.72
USD Millions
1370 1500 166 167 1800
Capital Flows -10060.35
USD Million
-9587 3510 -9674 -8527 6510
Tourist Arrivals 215268.00
227600 225200 225000 225400 225300
Gold Reserves 61.70
Tonnes
63.29 62.89 63.17 62.98 63.02
Crude Oil Production 487.00
BBL/D/1K
500 510 485 485 510
Terrorism Index 0.81
1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
54.7 54.7 54.9 54.9 56
Government Budget -3.90
percent of GDP
-2.7 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4
Government Budget Value -7817.80
ARS Million
-3255 -24788 -2512 -25208 -21156
Government Spending 92276.00
ARS Million
101741 105058 94398 101699 110484
Government Revenues 253783.00
ARS Million
252073 229397 252209 229508 233559
Fiscal Expenditure 261600.80
ARS Million
255328 254778 254721 254715 254715
Military Expenditure 5164.97
USD Million
5176 5176 5238 5238 5350
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production -1.20
percent
1.5 1.6 2 2.4 2.6
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent
1.4 1.3 0.43 0.43 1.6
Capacity Utilization 65.10
percent
63 64 65 65.16 66
Changes in Inventories -4761.00
ARS Million
10332 17539 13991 15738 15162
Car Production 39420.00
Units
39489 38900 40414 40399 40900
Car Registrations 55.36
Thousand
58.91 55 60.66 60.75 58
Leading Economic Index -2.30
percent
0.7 1.7 2 2.2 1.8
Internet Speed 6268.01
KBps
7159 7097 6980 7261 7495
IP Addresses 8203135.00
IP
8618254 8661368 8697988 8729645 8889896
Steel Production 438.11
Thousand Tonnes
417 410 408 406 405
Competitiveness Index 3.95
Points
3.95 3.95 4 4 4
Competitiveness Rank 92.00
92 92 90 90 91
Ease of Doing Business 117.00
114 114 117 117 113
Corruption Index 39.00
Points
38 38 37 37 36
Corruption Rank 85.00
85 85 84 84 84
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 36.00
Index Points
35.2 35.3 35.5 35.7 36.5
Retail Sales MoM 25.90
percent
1.63 1.2 1.63 1.63 1.1
Retail Sales YoY 22.10
percent
16.1 20 10.2 27.03 17
Consumer Spending 549155.00
ARS Million
532133 510661 561786 593851 537037
Households Debt To Gdp 7.00
Percent
7.64 7.92 7.97 8.19 8.69
Gasoline Prices 0.98
USD/Liter
0.93 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.44
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 626.18
SQ. METRE THO
600 620 598 598 640
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 44.00
percent
44 44 44 44 44
Social Security Rate For Companies 27.00
percent
27 27 27 27 27
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 77.43
mm
25.77 54.22 62.67 48.74 46.12
Temperature 20.31
celsius
9.81 17.8 20.02 11.7 14.99