Argentina's retail trade increased by 25.0 percent year-on-year in January 2019, slowing from a 25.7 percent rise in the previous month. Sales slowed for sports accessories & clothing (55.3 percent vs 64.1 percent in December); and bookstore and stationery (41 percent vs 49.7 percent). Meanwhile, sales advanced at a faster pace for clothing & footwear (34.5 percent vs 32.2 percent); furnishings, decoration & textiles for home (19.1 percent vs 7.4 percent); and toys and toys (21.7 percent vs 20.0 percent). Additionally, sales of electronics & appliances declined less (-17.4 percent vs -19.5 percent). On real terms, retail sales dropped 15.1 percent (vs -13.3 percent in December), falling for the seventh straight month. Retail Sales YoY in Argentina averaged 21.51 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 72.20 percent in January of 2003 and a record low of -40.30 percent in January of 2002.
Retail Sales YoY in Argentina is expected to be 10.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Argentina to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Argentina Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.