Armenia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Armenia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Armenia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 17.60 17 16.9 16.9 17 16.6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.30 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.7 1.9 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 6 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade -228.00 -184 -187 -200 -201 -211 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.23 49.1 49.1 50.2 50.2 52.9 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 481.40
481 481 481 481 481
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20
percent
3.7 4 3.5 3.3 4.3
GDP 11.54
USD Billion
13 13 13.3 13.3 13.8
GDP Constant Prices 1358429.10
AMD Million
1621264 1865594 1151095 1403257 2027539
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 189465.60
AMD Million
274960 453948 132904 195718 493353
GDP per capita 4219.40
USD
4388 4388 4572 4572 4584
GDP per capita PPP 8787.60
USD
9100 9100 9400 9400 9700
GDP From Agriculture 125689.50
AMD Million
342333 293817 55551 129837 319322
GDP From Construction 94491.50
AMD Million
125893 172503 44799 97610 187477
GDP From Manufacturing 144813.90
AMD Million
138938 161858 133385 149593 175908
GDP From Mining 37310.80
AMD Million
43081 48763 41556 38542 52996
GDP From Public Administration 56805.80
AMD Million
61877 95417 48456 58680 103700
GDP From Services 24492.50
AMD Million
27677 24897 16068 25301 27058
GDP From Transport 45142.30
AMD Million
41760 44407 40700 46632 48262
GDP From Utilities 6214.80
AMD Million
5993 6116 5950 6420 6647
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 17.60
percent
17 16.9 16.9 17 16.6
Unemployed Persons 67.80
Thousand
68.2 68.1 67.9 66.72 67.6
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.70
percent
60.9 61.3 60.8 61.2 61.7
Wages 1745422.00
AMD/Month
194000 210000 213000 215000 250000
Minimum Wages 55000.00
AMD/Month
55000 55000 60000 60000 60000
Population 2.98
Million
2.95 2.95 2.93 2.93 2.91
Retirement Age Women 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Wages In Manufacturing 161767.00
AMD/Monthly
190000 210000 215000 221000 242000
Employed Persons 1149.00
Thousand
888 853 870 890 975
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.30
percent
2.4 2.7 2.9 2.7 1.9
Consumer Price Index CPI 124.91
Index Points
124 130 133 129 135
Core Consumer Prices 99.66
Index Points
104 104 103 101 108
Core Inflation Rate 4.20
percent
3.8 3.5 2.9 1.3 1.6
Producer Prices 98.50
Index Points
105 106 103 107 115
Producer Prices Change -0.90
percent
4.7 5.3 4.9 4.6 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7
Import Prices 101.60
Index Points
99.7 100 102 102 102
Food Inflation 4.10
percent
2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4
Export Prices 94.60
Index Points
101 105 102 105 101
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.5
Money Supply M0 1011136.00
AMD Million
1000000 1030000 1035000 1010000 1060000
Money Supply M1 795886.00
AMD Million
792000 799000 810000 825000 870000
Money Supply M2 1432446.00
AMD Million
1430000 1480000 1510000 1560000 1750000
Deposit Interest Rate 9.01
percent
9.01 8.76 8.76 8.76 8.51
Lending Rate 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2066.60
USD Million
2100 2080 2020 2150 2130
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -228.00
USD Million
-184 -187 -200 -201 -211
Exports 209.50
USD Million
197 196 189 191 200
Imports 437.50
USD Million
381 383 390 392 411
Current Account -208.70
USD Million
-93.6 -250 -206 -136 -290
Current Account to GDP -2.90
percent
-3.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.7
External Debt 10687.78
USD Million
10888 11100 11300 11500 12800
Capital Flows -232.50
USD Million
-87.68 -456 -251 -233 -335
Terms Of Trade 93.10
Index Points
102 104 100 103 98.72
Terrorism Index 2.37
2.1 2.1 1.2 1.2 0.8
Tourist Arrivals 86834.00
Thousand
86900 64600 57400 85100 69900
Remittances 261.20
USD Million
440 510 274 350 545
Foreign Direct Investment 90.50
USD Million
57.5 81.7 83.4 74.5 120
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.23
percent
49.1 49.1 50.2 50.2 52.9
Government Budget -5.60
percent of GDP
-2.6 -2.6 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4
Government Budget Value 24004.50
AMD Billion
-59500 -170000 -20000 -21500 -190000
Government Revenues 358778.10
AMD Billion
329000 370000 270000 335000 390000
Government Debt 3224.80
AMD Billion
3400 3540 3610 3690 4370
Fiscal Expenditure 334773.60
AMD Million
388500 540000 290000 356500 580000
Military Expenditure 437.45
USD Million
442 442 449 449 451
Government Spending 171668.80
AMD Million
213632 272274 142974 177334 295909
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 5.40
percent
8.3 7.2 7.9 5.4 8.4
Industrial Production Mom 3.40
percent
-0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 4.1
Manufacturing Production 5.70
percent
2.4 7.1 8.6 9.1 8.7
Leading Economic Index 0.60
percent
9.4 6.7 7.8 4.2 12.8
Internet Speed 5182.66
KBps
4810 4796 4803 4800 4801
IP Addresses 297303.00
IP
262207 237444 254552 240522 236259
Mining Production -6.80
percent
2.5 3.6 7.4 9.8 2.4
Ease of Doing Business 47.00
45 45 49 49 46
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
37 37 39 39 36
Corruption Rank 107.00
106 106 105 105 108
Changes In Inventories 98535.00
AMD Million
10000 105000 109000 110000 115000
Competitiveness Index 4.19
Points
4.1 4.1 4.19 4.23 4.12
Competitiveness Rank 73.00
73 73 71 71 68
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 14.70
percent
8.4 4.8 8.1 6.7 5.2
Consumer Credit 621804.42
AMD Million
592000 610000 615000 622000 710000
Consumer Spending 1046815.20
AMD Million
1178549 1306534 914298 1081360 1419949
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 1.60
percent
-1.2 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 36.00
percent
36 36 36 36 36
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 4 4 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 24.21
mm
39.9 32.78 29.75 44.31 44.96
Temperature -4.14
celsius
19.46 3.81 -1.94 18.38 8.76