Week Ahead

Next week the FOMC minutes will be keenly watched, alongside US inflation, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, trade balance and factory orders; UK monthly GDP, industrial output and foreign trade; ECB meeting accounts; Eurozone business survey, retail trade and jobless rate; Germany factory orders, industrial production and trade balance; China inflation and producer prices; Japan consumer confidence; and Australia business morale. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn focus to the FOMC minutes release for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy path. In addition, the highly anticipated consumer price index report for December will probably show a decline in inflation to 1.9 percent from November's 2.2 percent on lower energy prices, while the core inflation is set to remain unchanged at 2.2 percent. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to a slowdown in the service sector during December; while the Census Bureau is set to publish trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, new home sales, and wholesale inventories, which may be postponed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown. Other important data include JOLTs job openings, consumer credit change, NFIB Business Optimism Index, and the government's monthly budget statement.

Meanwhile, US-China trade talks will be in the spotlight in the coming week on hopes that the world's largest economies could reach an agreement on trade when they meet in Beijing on January 7th-8th.

Other highlights for America include: Canada trade balance, Ivey PMI and new housing prices; and Mexico and Brazil inflation rates. The Bank of Canada will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

In the UK the ONS will release monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output, trade balance and final figures of third-quarter labor productivity. The Halifax House Price Index will also be released and is expected to show a slight recovery in annual home price growth from a near six-year low seen in the three months to November. Elsewhere, investors will be waiting for the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps after the Bank's decision in December to end its bond-buying programme. In addition, key data to watch for include the Eurozone business survey, retail trade and jobless rate; Germany factory orders, industrial production, trade balance and retail sales; France consumer confidence, foreign trade and industrial output; Italy unemployment, retail trade and industrial output; and Switzerland inflation, retail trade and unemployment.

In China traders will focus on December's consumer and producer prices. Annual inflation rate is expected to ease further to 2.1 percent from a four-month low in November, and producer prices are set to rise 1.6 percent, the slowest pace since October 2016. Meanwhile, Japan will see the release of consumer confidence, current account, average cash earnings and household spending; while in Australia, important data include trade balance, NAB Business Confidence, retail sales, building permits, and AIG indexes for manufacturing, services and construction sectors. Other key figures for the Asia-Pacific region are India industrial production, South Korea unemployment, and Taiwan inflation and trade balance.

Week Ahead

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/5/2019 11:26:05 AM