Week Ahead


Next week the FOMC meeting will be keenly watched, alongside US jobs report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, pending home sales and the final Michigan consumer sentiment. Also: UK consumer morale, Markit Manufacturing PMI and monetary indicators; Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, inflation and business survey; Japan consumer confidence, retail sales and industrial production; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Australia consumer morale and Q4 inflation rate. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks, UK parliamentary vote on Brexit "Plan B" and BoJ meeting minutes.

The Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of 2019 at which policymakers are likely to keep monetary policy unchanged while stressing that they can be patient about further policy firming. Regarding the economic calendar, the highly anticipated jobs report is expected to show a payroll increase of 168 thousand in January, after employers added the most workers in 10 months in December; while annual wage growth is expected to remain at its strongest level since 2009. In addition, the ISM will release its Manufacturing PMI, which is likely to show factory activity growth close to a two-year low during January. Figures for ADP employment change, pending home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller home prices and employment cost index will also be keenly watched, alongside final readings of Michigan consumer sentiment and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Still, key economic data such as the advance estimate of Q4 GDP growth, international trade, housing data, construction spending, wholesale and business inventories, factory orders and retail trade may be further delayed due to the partial government shutdown.

US-China trade talks will be in the spotlight in the coming week on hopes that the world's largest economies could reach an agreement on trade when they meet in Washington on January 30th-31st.

In the UK lawmakers will vote Tuesday on Theresa May's Brexit "Plan B" and on crucial amendments that could force the Government to delay Brexit and reduce the chance of a no-deal. On the economic data front, Gfk consumer confidence is set to deteriorate further to the lowest since July 2013 and the Markit manufacturing PMI is likely to show a slowdown in manufacturing growth, after expanding at the strongest pace in six months during December. Also, the Bank of England will release its monetary indicators.

Elsewhere in Europe, preliminary estimates of Q4 GDP growth, alongside inflation rate, business survey and unemployment will be published for the Eurozone. Market consensus suggest the economy grew only 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2018, matching the previous period's four-year low amid persistent trade tensions and global economic slowdown. Other key highlights include Q4 GDP growth for France, Italy and Spain; and consumer morale for Germany, France, Italy and Switzerland. In addition: Germany retail sales and jobless rate; Switzerland KOF leading indicators; Italy and Spain industry morale, Markit Manufacturing PMIs and unemployment; and Turkey balance of trade.

The Bank of Japan will be releasing the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting and the summary of opinions from board members. Other important publications for Japan include: consumer confidence; unemployment rate; retail sales; preliminary estimate of industrial production; and housing starts. In China investors will focus on Manufacturing PMI from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts siganling a steeper contraction in the sector during January. The official non-manufacturing PMI will also be released. Meanwhile, Australia will be releasing: consumer, producer and foreign trade prices; NAB business confidence; private sector credit; and AIG Manufacturing Index. Inflation is expected to ease to two-year low. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Taiwan Q4 GDP growth; South Korea and Indonesia inflation rates; and India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/26/2019 11:29:38 AM