Philippines GDP Growth Slowest In A Year in Q4


The Philippines economy grew an annual 6.6 percent in the December quarter of 2016, following a downwardly revised 7.0 percent expansion in the previous two quarters but slightly above market consensus of a 6.5 percent growth. It was the weakest expansion since the fourth quarter 2015, as private consumption and investment slowed while government spending and exports rose further.

In the three months to December, household consumption expanded 6.3 percent year-on-year, compared to a 7.1 percent increase in the second quarter. Government expenditure advanced 4.0 percent, faster than a 3.1 percent growth in the September quarter, as some programs under the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who began a six-year term at the end of June 2016, were already completed.

Gross domestic capital formation increased by 15.0 percent, slowing from a 18.6 percent growth in the previous quarter but marking the seven straight quarters of double-digit growth. Investment in construction grew by 9.5 percent, followed by durable equipment (3.7 percent), breeding stocks & orchard development:(3.7 percent) and intellectual property products (28.7 percent).

Exports increased by 10.4 percent, faster than a 8.8 percent rise in the third quarter. While sales of goods rose 9.6 percent (from 7.8 percent in the third quarter), those of  services went up 13.6 percent (from +14.2 percent). Imports increased by 15.0 percent, following a 13.6 percent in the preceding quarter.

On the production side, the services sector advanced 7.4 6.9 percent, compared to a 6.8 percent growth in the three months to September quarter and accounted for 46.7 percent of the total economy. Growth in the sector was supported by public administration & defense; compulsory social security (12.1 percent), real estate (9.0 percent), trade and repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods (6.9 percent), other services (6.5 percent), transport, storage & communication (6.3 percent) and financial intermediation (6.0 percent). The industry sector expanded 7.6 percent, following a 8.4 percent growth in the preceding quarter. Construction recorded the highest increase (11.0 percent), followed by electricity, gas and water supply (8.9 percent) and manufacturing (6.9 percent). In contrast, mining & quarrying shrank by 0.5 percent, following a 2.6 percent fall in the September quarter.  Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing declined by 1.1 percent, following a 2.9 percent growth in the previous period. 

For full 2016, the economy grew by 6.8 percent, faster than a 5.9 percent expansion in 2015.

For 2017, the economy is expected to advance between 6.5 to 7.5 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the GDP advanced 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter 2016, compared to an upwardly revised 1.5 percent growth in the September quarter while market estimated a 1.6 percent growth.

Philippines GDP Growth Slowest In A Year in Q4


PSA l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
1/26/2017 5:57:59 AM