Thai Economy Expands 2.8% YoY in Q4, Slightly Above Forecasts

Thailand’s GDP expanded by 2.8 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2015, as compared to a 2.9 percent expansion in the previous quarter and slightly above market expectations. A rebound in investment and a faster increase in private consumption and government spending were unable to offset a decline in exports.

On the expenditure side, private consumption grew by 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter 2015, accelerating from a 1.8 percent increase in the preceding quarter. The expansion was mainly supported by the improvement of spending on durable and semi-durable goods together with the increase in service expense. Besides, the consumption of non-durable goods consumption continued to expand. Government expenditure expanded by 4.8 percent, up from a 2.3 percent increase in the previous quarter, attributed to an increase in compensation of employees and purchase of goods and services.  Gross fixed capital formation advanced by 9.4 percent, rebounding from a  2.6 percent contraction in the preceding quarter, mainly due to a 1.9 percent increase in private investment while public investment grew by 41.1 percent, as compared to a 21.9 percent growth in the previous quarter.  Exports of goods and services fell by 3.5 percent, as compared to a 1.7 percent increase in the previous three months. Imports also decreased by 1.3 percent, slowing from a 2.6 percent fall in the third quarter.

On the production side, the non-agricultural sector expanded by 4.2 percent, as compared to a 3.2 percent growth in the September quarter.  In contrast, agriculture sector contracted by 3.4 percent, following a 5.5 percent fall in the previous quarter. Growth in non-agriculture sector was seen for: manufacturing (+0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as in the September quarter); mining and quarrying (+3.7 percent from +2.4 percent); eelectricity, gas and water supply (+5.0 percent from +2.7 percent), construction (+23.9 percent from +9.4 percent); transport, storage and communication (+5.3 percent from +6.7 percent); wholesale-retail trades and repairing (+5.5 percent); financial intermediation (+7.5 percent from +5.9 percent); real estate services (+6.6 percent from +3.1 percent); hotels and restaurants (+5.0 percent from +12.7 percent) and other community, social and personal service (+8.3 percent from +6.1 percent). Meanwhile, a contraction in agriculture sector mainly driven by  agriculture, hunting and forestry (-4.4 percent) while   fishery expanded by 6.5 percent.

For 2016, the Thailand's economic planning agency (NESDB) revised down it GDP forecast to 2.8 percent to 3.8 percent from an earlier forecast of 3.0 percent to 4.0 percent.

For full year of 2015, Thailand GDP advanced 2.8 percent, accelerating from a three-year-low of 0.8 percent in 2014.

On a quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the GDP expanded by 0.8 percent, slowing from a  1.0 percent  growth in the previous three months and below market consensus.

Thai Economy Expands 2.8% YoY in Q4, Slightly Above Forecasts

NESDB l Rida Husna |
2/15/2016 7:29:48 AM