Week Ahead


Next week the FOMC minutes will be keenly watched, alongside US durable goods orders, existing home sales and flash Markit PMIs; UK unemployment and wage growth; Eurozone consumer confidence and flash Markit PMIs; Germany business and investor morale; Japan inflation, foreign trade and flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI; and Australia employment figures. Investors will also react to the ECB and RBA meeting minutes and US-China trade talks.

In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. Regarding the economic calendar, the country is scheduled to release its monthly report on durable goods orders, which will probably show a further increase in demand during December. In addition, existing home sales are likely to rebound in January after falling to a near three-year low in December; and preliminary estimates of Markit PMIs are set to point to a slowdown in manufacturing expansion, while services activity growth is seen unchanged at four-month low. Other notable publications are NAHB Housing Market Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations will continue next week in Washington and any new development will be keenly watched as investors hope that the US and China could reach an agreement.

Other important releases for America include Canada retail sales; Mexico monetary policy meeting minutes; and Brazil business confidence.

In the UK figures from the ONS are expected to show an acceleration in wage growth to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest increase in earnings since the three months to July 2008; while unemployment is likely to remain close to its lowest level since 1975. Preliminary figures for fourth-quarter labor productivity, alongside public sector net borrowing and CBI factory orders will also be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts. Traders will also keep an eye on the Eurozone February's flash consumer confidence, construction output and current account; and Germany final fourth-quarter GDP growth, Ifo business survey, investor morale and producer prices. German business climate is set to fall to a new three-year low while investor morale is expected to improve to a five-month high. In addition, the Eurozone, Germany and France are set to release final readings of January's inflation rate and flash Markit PMI figures for February. Other important releases include France industry confidence; Sweden inflation; Switzerland trade balance and industrial output; and Turkey consumer and business sentiment.

Japan will be publishing inflation, flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and January's foreign trade data, with forecasts pointing to the sharpest fall in exports in more than two years due to the ongoing US-China trade war. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, with investors waiting for further clues on the next monetary policy move. The country's wage growth and employment figures will also be followed. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: China house price index; Thailand Q4 GDP growth and trade balance; Indonesia interest rate decision; and Malaysia inflation rate.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
2/17/2019 10:29:12 AM