Energy inflation is set to increase to 3.1 percent in February from 1.9 percent in the previous month; and food inflation to 3 percent from 2.7 percent, with gains coming from both fresh food (8.3 percent vs 8.4 percent) and other food products (2.1 percent vs 1.7 percent). Meanwhile, tobacco prices are likely to increase 14 percent, the same pace as in the previous month, while services prices are set to rose at a slower 0.8 percent (vs 1 percent in January) and manufactured products costs should fall at a steeper 0.5 percent (vs -0.4 percent in January).
On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to remain flat in February, following January's 0.4 percent decline and compared to market expectations of a 0.4 percent rise. Energy prices should rebound in the wake of petroleum product prices, after a drop in the three previous months. The decrease in the prices of manufactured products should be sharply lesser than in January, due to the end of winter sales. Food prices should slow down, due to a sharp downturn in the fresh product prices. In addition, services prices should be stable over the previous month.
The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.5 percent from the previous year (vs 1.7 percent in January) and by 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.6 percent in January).