Week Ahead


Next week the US will be publishing February's jobs report, alongside foreign trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, new home sales and construction spending. Elsewhere, the ECB, RBA and BoC will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important releases include: UK Services and Construction PMIs; Eurozone and Japan final Q4 GDP growth; Germany factory orders; China foreign trade, inflation data and Caixin Services PMI; and Australia Q4 GDP growth, trade balance and retail sales. China's National People's Congress will also be keenly watched.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report. Market forecasts point to a payroll increase of 185 thousand in February, after January's 11-month high; while annual wage growth is expected to remain close to its strongest level in a decade. In addition, the December trade deficit is likely to widen from a five-month low seen in November; and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to recover from a six-month low in January. ADP employment change, new home sales, construction spending, non-farm productivity and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism will also be keenly watched, alongside the government's monthly budget statement and the final reading of Markit Services PMI.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will meet to set monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important data include Canada employment figures, foreign trade, Ivey PMI and housing starts; and Mexico inflation rate.

In the UK, investors will be waiting for updated figures of Services and Construction PMIs, Halifax house prices and Q1 consumer inflation expectations. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, important releases include the Eurozone final estimate of Q4 GDP growth and employment, alongside retail sales, producer inflation and the final Markit Services PMI; Germany factory orders; France trade balance and industrial activity; Italy retail sales and industrial output; Greece Q4 GDP growth; and Turkey interest rate decision and inflation rate.

China will be releasing February's trade figures, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Also, the Caixin Services PMI is set to recover from a three-month low; consumer inflation is likely to fall to a new 13-month low; and producer prices should pick up from a near two-year low. In Japan, investors will focus on final Q4 GDP growth, Nikkei Services PMI, January’s preliminary coincident and leading economic indexes and current account. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hold its cash rate at current levels when it meets on Tuesday. The country will also be publishing figures for Q4 GDP growth, trade balance and retail sales. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea final Q4 GDP growth and inflation; Malaysia interest rate decision and trade balance and the Philippines inflation.

Markets will also be focusing on China's National People's Congress from Tuesday, as Premier Li Keqiang will deliver the annual Work Report, in which he will announce the GDP growth target for 2019 and set the country's policy priorities for the coming year.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/1/2019 6:52:43 PM