Excerpts from the RBI Press Release:
The 6th bi-monthly resolution of 2017-18 in February projected CPI inflation at 5.1 per cent in Q4:2017-18; and in the range of 5.1-5.6 per cent in H1:2018-19 and 4.5-4.6 per cent in H2, including the HRA impact, with risks tilted to the upside. Actual inflation outcomes in January-February averaged 4.8 per cent, largely reflecting the sharp decline in vegetable prices and significant moderation in fuel group inflation. The available information suggests that vegetable prices continued to moderate in March as well. Accordingly, inflation in Q4:2017-18 is now projected at 4.5 percent.
Projected CPI inflation for 2018-19 is revised to 4.7-5.1 per cent in H1:2018-19 and 4.4 per cent in H2, including the HRA (house rent allowance) impact for central government employees, with risks tilted to the upside. Excluding the impact of HRA revisions, CPI inflation is projected at 4.4-4.7 per cent in H1:2018-19 and 4.4 per cent in H2.
Turning to the growth outlook, several factors are expected to accelerate the pace of economic activity in 2018-19. First, there are now clearer signs of revival in investment activity as reflected in the sustained expansion in capital goods production and still rising imports, albeit at a slower pace than in January. Second, global demand has been improving, which should encourage exports and boost fresh investment. On the whole, GDP growth is projected to strengthen from 6.6 per cent in 2017-18 to 7.4 per cent in 2018-19 – in the range of 7.3-7.4 per cent in H1 and 7.3-7.6 per cent in H2 – with risks evenly balanced.
The reverse repo rate was also left on hold at 5.75 percent and the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate at 6.25 percent.