Week Ahead


Next week the US will be publishing foreign trade data, retail sales, industrial production and flash Markit PMIs. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK inflation rate, unemployment, wage growth and retail trade; Eurozone flash Markit PMIs; China Q1 GDP growth rate, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan inflation rate, trade balance and Nikkei Flash Manufacturing PMI; and Australia employment figures. Investors will also react to the RBA and RBI meeting minutes.

In the US the highly anticipated foreign trade report for February will probably show a widening deficit from January's USD 51.1 billion gap; while March's housing starts and building permits should increase, following sharp declines in the previous month. In addition, retail sales are expected to rise the most in five months in March, after falling unexpectedly in February; while industrial output is set to grow for the first time since November. Figures for flash Markit PMIs, business and wholesale inventories, and capital flows will also be keenly watched, alongside Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index.

Other highlights for America include Canada inflation rate, trade balance and retail sales.

The UK will be publishing inflation data, unemployment, wage growth and retail trade. Consumer prices are seen rising the most in three months while unemployment rate is likely to remain close to its lowest level since 1975 and retail trade is expected to fall.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone, Germany and France flash Markit PMIs will be in the spotlight. The bloc’s manufacturing sector is forecast to post a third straight month of contraction while the services activity growth will probably remain subdued. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone trade balance, current account and construction output; Germany investor morale and producer inflation; Italy consumer and business confidence; Switzerland trade balance; and Turkey jobless rate, industrial production and retail sales.

In China investors will be focusing on Q1 GDP growth, as markets forecasts point to the weakest pace of economic expansion since 2009 amid ongoing trade tariff war with the US. The country will also be providing updated figures for industrial production, retail sales, house price index and fixed asset investment. In Japan, analysts are eyeing the publication of March's inflation rate, trade balance, Nikkei Flash Manufacturing PMI and the final reading of industrial production. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of their last monetary policy meetings. Other key data for Australia include employment figures and CommBank flash PMIs; while in India investors will be waiting for wholesale prices and trade balance. Other important releases for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea interest rate decision; New Zealand Q1 consumer inflation; Hong Kong unemployment rate; and Indonesia trade balance.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/12/2019 7:20:11 PM