Week Ahead


The Fed and BoE will be deciding on interest rates next week, but no changes are expected. Other important releases include: US jobs report, ISM PMIs, personal income and outlays, PCE prices, construction spending and factory orders; UK consumer morale and Markit PMIs; Eurozone Q1 GDP growth, inflation and business survey; Germany consumer confidence and retail trade; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Australia AIG PMIs. Markets will also react to US-China trade talks.

The Federal Reserve will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets next week, with investors awaiting for further clues on its monetary policy path. In March, Fed officials pledged to be patient about further policy firming amid concerns about ongoing trade talks, Brexit negotiations and the possibility of a greater than expected economic slowdown in Europe and China.

Meanwhile, the US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 180 thousand in April, while annual wage growth is expected to remain close to its strongest level in a decade. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to show a slowdown in manufacturing growth during April, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably pick up from March's one-and-a-half-year low. Other notable publications are personal income and outlays, PCE price index, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, pending home sales, Q1 employment cost index and non-farm productivity, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, total vehicle sales, and final Markit PMIs.

US and China restart trade negotiations next Tuesday, amid growing hopes that the world's largest economies could reach a draft agreement by next month.

Other key figures for America include: Canada monthly GDP, producer inflation, and RBC Manufacturing PMI; Mexico preliminary Q1 GDP growth and business confidence. Brazil Q1 consumer confidence, unemployment, industrial output and trade balance.

In the UK, the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision and to publish its Inflation Report with updated forecasts. Still, policymakers are widely expected to keep policy on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Other important releases include Gfk consumer confidence, Markit PMIs, and Bank of England's monetary indicators.

Elsewhere in Europe, first-quarter GDP estimates and April's flash inflation rates will be released for the Eurozone and several Member states. The bloc's economy is set to advance at a faster rate, while France and Spain growth rates will probably remain unchanged and Italy's economy is likely to contract further. Other important releases include: the Eurozone business climate, unemployment and final Markit PMIs; Germany Gfk consumer confidence, retail trade and jobless rate; Switzerland KOF leading indicators and Q1 consumer morale; and Turkey consumer and producer prices, and foreign trade.

In China, investors will be waiting for an update on manufacturing activity from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts pointing to another month of growth in the sector. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely to ease after hitting a six-month high in March. Meanwhile in South Korea, investors will focus on trade figures, consumer inflation rate, business confidence and industrial output; while in Australia, they will follow AIG PMIs, private sector credit, HIA new home sales, and building permits. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Hong Kong Q1 GDP growth; New Zealand Q1 employment figures; Indonesia and Thailand inflation rates; and Malaysia trade balance.

Markets in Japan will be closed from April 27th to May 6th, the longest break ever for Japanese stocks and bonds, as the country celebrates the ascension of the new emperor and a string of public holidays.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/26/2019 5:41:20 PM