Italy Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows to 4-Month Low


Italy’s annual inflation rate is expected to decrease to 0.9 percent in May of 2019 from 1.1 percent in the previous month and compared with market expectations of 1.3 percent, preliminary estimates showed. It is the lowest inflation rate since January, mainly due to lower food prices.

Cost should rise at a softer pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.4 percent from 0.6 percent in March), mainly due to a fall in processed food prices. In addition, recreation and culture prices are seen down 0.2 percent in May, after showing no growth in the prior month while furnishing and household equipment prices are likely to be unchanged, following a 0.1 percent gain in April. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to be steady for health (at 0.5 percent); clothing and footwear (0.2 percent) and education (0.1 percent). 

On the other hand, inflation is likely to pick up for transport (2.6 percent from 1.8 percent), namely services related to transport (2.8 percent from 1.6 percent); restaurant and hotels (1.5 percent from 1.1 percent); housing and utilities (3.4 percent from 3.3 percent), particularly non-regulated energy (3.7 percent from 2.4 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (1.9 percent from 1.5 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.4 percent from 2.2 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is expected to ease to 0.5 percent in May from 0.6 percent in the prior month. Excluding only energy, inflation should decrease to 0.6 percent from 0.7 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should increase 0.1 percent in May, following March’s 0.2 percent gain and below market consensus of 0.2 percent. 

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to rise 0.9 percent from the previous year (from 1.1 percent in April); and to advance 0.1 percent month-over-month (from 0.5 percent in April).

Italy Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows to 4-Month Low


Istat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com
5/31/2019 9:33:47 AM