India Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 5-Year Low

The Indian economy advanced 5.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, slowing from a 6.6 percent expansion in the previous period and missing market expectations of 6.3 percent. It was the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2014, amid weaker consumer demand and fixed investment.

Slower growth rates were seen in household spending (8.1 percent compared to 8.4 percent in Q4) and gross fixed capital formation (10 percent compared to 10.6 percent). Meanwhile, government consumption (9.2 percent compared to 6.5 percent) and inventories (4.8 percent compared to 3.9 percent) increased further. Net external trade contributed negatively to the GDP, as exports went up 12.5 percent (vs 14.6 percent in Q4) and imports rose at a faster 15.4 percent (vs 14.7 percent in Q4).

Household spending accounted for 56.8 percent of the GDP (58.9 percent in Q4); gross fixed capital formation for 30.7 percent (33.4 percent in Q4); public expenditure for 9.9 percent (9.7 percent in Q4); and changes in stocks for 1.1 percent, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2018. Exports accounted for 20 percent (21.8 percent in Q4) while imports subtracted 23.3 percent (-25.7 percent in Q4).

Gross Value Added, that is, GDP excluding taxes grew 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2019, easing from a 6.3 percent expansion in the prior period. A slowdown was recorded in manufacturing (3.1 percent compared to 6.4 percent in Q4);  trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting (6 percent compared to 6.9 percent); and construction (7.1 percent compared to 9.7 percent). Also, agriculture, forestry and fishing shrank 0.1 percent, after expanding 2.8 percent in the prior quarter. On the other hand, output went up further in mining (4.2 percent compared to 1.8 percent);  public administration and defence (10.7 percent compared to 7.5 percent); and financial, real estate and professional services (9.5 percent compared to 7.2 percent).

India Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 5-Year Low

Stefanie Moya |
5/31/2019 1:19:46 PM