Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing inflation rate, retail sales, industrial production and flash Michigan's consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK unemployment, wage growth, monthly GDP and trade balance; Eurozone industrial output; China foreign trade, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan final Q1 GDP growth and machinery orders; Australia employment figures, business and consumer morale; India inflation and industrial output. Central bank decisions in Russia, Switzerland and Turkey will also be in the spotlight.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 6/7/2019 5:28:07 PM
In the US the highly anticipated consumer price index report for May will probably show a slowdown in inflation rate from April's five-month high; while the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment should point to a deterioration in morale during June, after hitting an eight-month high in the previous month. In addition, retail sales are expected to rise in April, after falling unexpectedly in March; while industrial output is set to grow slightly. Other notable publications are JOLTs job openings, producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, IBD/TIPP economic optimism and the government's budget statement.

Other key figures for America include Canada housing starts, building permits and new housing prices; Mexico industrial production; and Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity and retail sales. The Central Reserve Bank of Peru will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK investors will turn their attention to unemployment and wages data, alongside monthly GDP figures, industrial production, construction output and trade balance. The jobless rate is expected to held steady at its lowest since 1974 and wages are likely to rise the least in eight months, while GDP is seen contracting during April led by a decline in manufacturing output. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone industrial activity and trade balance will be eagerly awaited, as well as inflation figures for Sweden, the Netherlands and Ireland. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to cut its key interest rate by 0.25bps when it meets on Friday, while the Swiss National Bank and Central Bank of Turkey are expected to leave their monetary policies unchanged.

All eyes are on China's trade balance, with markets pointing to a fall in both exports and imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Also, the country’s consumer inflation rate is expected to rise to an over year high while producer prices will probably slow. Other important releases for China include industrial output, retail sales, lending and investment data. In Japan, investors will focus on the final estimate of Q1 GDP growth and industrial output, alongside current account, Eco Watchers Survey, machinery orders and producer inflation. Meanwhile, India will be publishing consumer inflation, industrial output, current account, wholesale prices, and trade balance. Australia will be providing updated figures for unemployment rate, NAB business confidence, and Westpac consumer confidence.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand business NZ PMI and food inflation; South Korea unemployment; Indonesia consumer inflation; and the Philippines trade balance.

Week Ahead