Week Ahead


Next week the US jobs report will be keenly watched, alongside ISM PMIs, foreign trade balance, construction spending and factory orders; UK Markit PMIs and monetary indicators; Germany factory orders and retail sales; China NBS and Caixin PMIs; Japan tankan business sentiment and consumer confidence; and Australia trade balance, retail sales and building permits. Investors will also react to the RBA policy meeting, in which it is expected to cut rates by 25bps; US-China trade talks; and OPEC meeting.

The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 158 thousand in June, after a smaller-than-expected 75 thousand rise last month. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to show the weakest pace of expansion in manufacturing activity since a contraction was recorded in August 2016, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably fall from May's three-month high. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, total vehicle sales, and final Markit PMIs.

Other important releases for America include Canada unemployment, trade balance and Ivey PMI; Mexico consumer and business morale; and Brazil industrial production and trade balance.

In the UK, Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and construction sectors are set to point to a contraction in activity while that for services is expected to show an acceleration in growth. Furthermore, the Bank of England will be publishing its monetary indicators, alongside the Financial Policy Committee Record. Elsewhere in Europe, investors will keep an eye on the Eurozone jobless rate, retail trade and producer inflation; Germany unemployment data, factory orders and retail sales; Spain and Italy flash Markit PMIs; and Turkey inflation rate. Central banks in Sweden, Poland and Romania will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes in interest rate are expected.

In China, the NBS will be releasing its Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs while Markit will publish its Caixin PMIs, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a deterioration in big manufacturers' confidence to a three-year low during the second quarter of the year. Other important releases for Japan are consumer confidence, household spending, Nikkei PMIs and leading indexes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to set monetary policy, with markets expecting a second 25bps rate cut so far this year, bringing the cash rate to a new record low. On the economic data front, important data include trade balance, retail sales, building permits, AIG PMIs, and HIA new home sales.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea inflation and trade balance; India Nikkei PMIs; Indonesia and the Philippines inflation rates; and Malaysia trade balance.

Finally, investors will focus on the OPEC+ meeting on July 1-2 in Vienna where major oil producers will be deciding whether to extend their supply cuts to support prices. Reactions are also expected to any development on trade talks following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the weekend.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
6/28/2019 5:38:30 PM