News

US Economy Adds Only 245K Jobs in November
The US economy added 245K jobs in November, easing from a downwardly revised 610K in the previous month, and well below market expectations of 469K. It is the smallest employment gain since the job market started to recover in May from a record 20.787 million loss in April. In November, nonfarm employment was below its February level by 9.8 million, or 6.5 percent, led by declines in employment in government and retail trade. On the other hand, notable job gains occurred over the month in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. The outlook for the labour market remains challenging as coronavirus infections continue to rise and more states introduced restrictions while the new stimulus bill which would provide support to millions of Americans hasn't yet been approved.
Published on 2020-12-04

Non Farm Payrolls Expected to Slow for 5th Month
Nonfarm payrolls in the US likely increased by 469 thousand in November of 2020, below 638 thousand in October and the least in six months. Government payrolls expected to fall for a second month while retailers are set to hire more workers due to the holiday season. Still, the projected gain would leave the employment 9.621 million below its February peak. The outlook for the labour market remains challenging as coronavirus infections continue to rise and more states introduced restrictions while the new stimulus bill which would provide support to millions of Americans hasn't yet been approved.
Published on 2020-12-04

US Economy Adds the Least Jobs in 6 Months
The US economy added 638K jobs in October, easing from an upwardly revised 672K in the previous month, but above market expectations of 600K. Still, it is the smallest employment gain since the job market started to recover in May from a record 20.787 million loss in April. The biggest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (271K), professional and business services (208K), retail trade (104K), and construction (84K). Meanwhile, employment in government declined by 268K. The outlook for the labour market remains challenging as out of more than 22 million jobs lost in March and April only 12 million were recovered and the new stimulus bill which would provide support to millions of Americans would not be approved anytime soon.
Published on 2020-11-06

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen at 6-Month Low
US nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 600 thousand in October of 2020, below 661 thousand in September. It would be the smallest employment gain since the job market started to recover in May from a record 20.787 million loss in April. The payrolls report is also expected to show increases in the ranks of people who have permanently lost their jobs, as well as those who have been out of work for more than six months. The outlook for the labour market remains challenging as out of more than 22 million jobs lost in March and April only 12 million were recovered and the new stimulus bill which would provide support to millions of Americans would not be approved anytime soon.
Published on 2020-11-06

US Economy Adds Only 661K Jobs in September
The US economy added 661 thousand jobs in September of 2020, easing sharply from an upwardly revised 1.489 million in the previous month, and below market forecasts of 850 thousand. In September, nonfarm employment was below its February level by 10.7 million, or 7.0 percent. The biggest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (318K), in retail trade (142K), in health care and social assistance (108K), and in professional and business services (89K). Employment declined in government (-216K), mainly in state and local government education. Yet, private payrolls increased by 877 thousand, above forecasts of 850 thousand. Still, recent figures showed the labour market is recovering from the coronavirus hit but slower than initially anticipated. Out of more than 22 million jobs lost in March and April only around 11.3 million were recovered.
Published on 2020-10-02

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Falling Below 1 Million
The US economy likely created 850 thousand jobs in September of 2020 compared to 1.371 million in August. It would be the first month of nonfarm payrolls below 1 million since the labour market started to rebound in May. Out of more than 22 million jobs lost in March and April only 11.3 million were recovered. Moreover, employment support from government remains weak as the new coronavirus aid bill has not been approved in the Senate, leaving millions of unemployed Americans with a smaller income. Also, the pandemic is far from controlled and many companies have not recalled workers from furloughs or temporary layoffs.
Published on 2020-10-02

US Economy Adds 1.37 Million Jobs in August
The US economy added 1.371 million jobs in August of 2020, easing from a downwardly revised 1.734 million in the previous month, and only slightly below market forecasts of 1.4 million. That leaves payrolls 11.5 million below its pre-pandemic level as more than 22 million jobs were lost in March and April. Government employment accounted for one-fourth of the over-the-month gain in total nonfarm employment (344K), largely reflecting temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Retail trade added 249K jobs, with almost half the growth occurring in general merchandise stores (116K). The professional and business services added 197K jobs, leisure and hospitality 174K; employment in education and health services 147K; transportation and warehousing 78K, financial activities 36K and manufacturing 29K.
Published on 2020-09-04

US Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Slowing for 2nd Month
US economy likely created 1.4 million jobs in August of 2020 compared to 1.763 million in July and a record high of 4.791 million in June. Still, that would leave payrolls 11 million below its pre-pandemic level as more than 22 million jobs were lost in March and April. If the economy keeps creating jobs at an average pace of 1.5 million per month, it will take at least 8 more months to complete the recovery. Moreover, employment support from government is compromised as negotiations between the Democrats and the Republicans for a new relief package broke up. Also, the pandemic is far from controlled and many companies have not extended its labour force yet with workers being recalled from furloughs or temporary layoffs.
Published on 2020-09-04

US Economy Adds More Jobs than Forecast
The US economy added 1.76 million jobs in July 2020, easing from a record 4.8 million in the previous month, as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases hit the labor market recovery. Still, the reading beat market expectations of a 1.6 million increase with employment in leisure and hospitality increasing by 592 thousand and accounting for about one-third of the gain, and with government employment rising by 301 thousand. Typically, public-sector education employment falls in July, but declines occurred earlier than usual this year due to the pandemic, resulting in unusually large increases in local government education (+215 thousand) and state government education (+30 thousand). Also, a 27 thousand advance in federal government employment reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Increases were also seen in retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care. Nonfarm employment remained 12.9 million below their pre pandemic-level.
Published on 2020-08-07

US Job Growth Seen Slowing in July
US nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 1.6 million in July, which alongside the record 4.8 million seen in June would leave payrolls 13.1 million below their pre pandemic-level. The expected slowdown in job growth could pile pressure on the White House and Congress to speed up negotiations on a new coronavirus relief package. The US government is set to deliver a new plan today, but lawmakers appeared to harden their stances on legislation as they are still divided about the extension of a $600 unemployment benefit. A private survey released on Wednesday showed the US economy added only 167 thousand jobs in July, well below forecasts of 1.5 million. The unemployment rate is expected to have dropped to 10.5 percent from 11.1 percent in June, while average hourly earnings are forecast to fall 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent drop.
Published on 2020-08-07

Nonfarm Payrolls Top 4.8 Million
The US economy added 4.8 million jobs in June of 2020, the most on record, beating expectations of 3 million. It follows an upwardly revised 2.7 million rise in May. These gains reflect a partial resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic in April and March, when employment fell by a total of 22.2 million in the 2 months combined. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply in June. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services. Employment continued to decline in mining. However, the job market still has a long way to full recovery. Many economists believe the numbers do not capture the full scale of job loses as many are being still classified as employed but are absent from work. Also, with the second wave of coronavirus in the US and several states scaling back or pausing reopening, more people will lose their jobs.
Published on 2020-07-02

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Rising to Record 3M
The US economy likely added 3 million jobs in June, a new record high as more businesses reopened after the coronavirus lockdown. It would be the second straight month of employment gains after the economy lost a record 20.68 million jobs in April. The jobless rate is seen declining to 12.3 percent from 13.3 percent. However, the job market still has a long way to full recovery. Many economists believe the numbers do not capture the full scale of job loses as many are being still classified as employed but are absent from work. Also, with the second wave of coronavirus in the US and several states scaling back or pausing reopening, more people will lose their jobs.
Published on 2020-07-02

US Economy Unexpectedly Adds 2.5 Million Jobs
The US economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May, the most on record, beating expectations of an 8 million cut, and after declining by a record high of 20.7 million in April. Large employment increases occurred in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade while government employment continued to decline sharply. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 492,000 to -1.4 million, and the change for April was revised down by 150,000 to -20.7 million. Figures for May suggested the economic recovery in the US may happen much faster than initially expected. However, riots and looting during protests over the death of George Floyd can be a threat to the recovery as many states have declared the state of emergency and set curfews while mass protests could lead to the second wave of coronavirus cases.
Published on 2020-06-05

Non Farm Payrolls Seen at 8M, Jobless Rate at Near 20%
The US economy is likely to shed 8 million jobs in May, after losing a record 20.5 million in the previous month and bringing the total job losses to 29.4 million. Due to lockdown measures set to stop the spread of COVID-19, most businesses were forced to close in the middle of March and only started to reopen in mid-May. The unemployment rate is seen hitting a new record high of 19.8% from 14.7% in April and closer to 25% estimated during the Great Depression. In April, job losses were widespread, with the largest 7.7 million decline occurring in leisure and hospitality including three-quarters in food services and drinking places (-5.5 million). Employment also fell in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry (-1.3 million) and in the accommodation industry (-839,000).
Published on 2020-06-05

US Economy Sheds Record 20.5 Million Jobs
The US economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, less than market expectations of a 22 million cut, and after declining by 870K in March. It is the largest drop ever, bringing the employment to 131 million, its lowest level since February 2011, due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent restrictive lockdown restrictions imposed such as business closures. Job losses were widespread, with the largest 7.7 million decline occurring in leisure and hospitality. Almost three-quarters of the decrease occurred in food services and drinking places (-5.5 million). Employment also fell in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry (-1.3 million) and in the accommodation industry (-839,000). The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 to -870,000. With these revisions, employment changes in February and March combined were 214,000 lower than previously reported.
Published on 2020-05-08

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Falling at a Record 22 Million
The US economy is likely to shed a record 22 million jobs in April, which would be biggest drop in payrolls since the Great Depression, due to the coronavirus pandemic. The spread of the virus prompted a full month quarantine in several US states depressing even further the labour market. The unemployment rate is expected to peak to an all-time high of 16 percent, and hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.4 percent. In March, the US economy shed 701K jobs, abruptly ending an historic 113 straight months of employment growth. It was the first decline in payrolls since September of 2010 but the figures were not as bad as those seen in 2008 as the number excluded the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by nearly 10 million. About two-thirds of job loses occurred in leisure and hospitality, mainly in food services and drinking places.
Published on 2020-05-08

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Falling the Most on Record
The US economy is likely to shed a record 22M jobs in April, due to the coronavirus pandemic. The spread of the virus prompted a full month quarantine in several US states depressing even further the labour market. The unemployment rate is expected to peak to 16 percent, and hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.4 percent. In March, the US economy shed 701K jobs, abruptly ending a historic 113 straight months of employment growth.
Published on 2020-05-07

US Economy Sheds 701K Jobs
The US economy lost 701 thousand jobs in March, much worse than market expectations of a 100K cut, reflecting the effects of the coronavirus and efforts to contain it. It is the first decline in payrolls since September of 2010 but the figures were not as bad as those seen in 2008 as the number excludes the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by nearly 10 million. About two-thirds of job loses occurred in leisure and hospitality, mainly in food services and drinking places. Employment also declined in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
Published on 2020-04-03

Nonfarm Payrolls Seen Falling for 1st Time in a Decade
The US economy is likely to shed 100K jobs in March, the first decline since 2010, due to the coronavirus pandemic. Still, the more complete picture of the damage caused by the pandemic will be only seen in data from April as the payrolls report excludes the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by near 10 million. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent in February and hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2 percent. The US economy added 273 thousand jobs in February, the most since May 2018, compared to an upwardly revised 273 thousand in January and market expectations of 175 thousand.
Published on 2020-04-03

Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations
The US economy added 273 thousand jobs in February of 2020, the most since May 2018, compared to an upwardly revised 273 thousand in January and market expectations of 175 thousand. In February, biggest job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 37,000 from +147,000 to +184,000, and the change for January was revised up by 48,000 from +225,000 to +273,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 85,000 higher than previously reported. Disruptions caused by the coronavirus are expected to be shown only in the March report, as sectors such as hospitality, travel and transportation may start cutting jobs due to travel cancellations.
Published on 2020-03-06