Week Ahead


Minutes from the Fed and ECB policy meetings will be keenly watched next week, alongside US inflation rate, JOLTs job openings and producer prices; UK monthly GDP figures and trade balance; Germany industrial output and foreign trade; China inflation, producer prices and trade balance; Japan machinery orders, current account and wage growth; Australia consumer and business morale; and India inflation and industrial production.

In the US, investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. Strong US jobs data released on Friday tempered expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates by 50bps later this month, while a 25bps cut is still on the table as wage gains remain subdued. Regarding the economic calendar, the highly anticipated consumer price index report for June will probably show a slowdown in inflation rate to a four-month low. Other notable publications are JOLTs job openings, producer prices, wholesale inventories, consumer credit change and the government's budget statement.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. On Thursday, he will reprise the performance before the Senate Banking Committee.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets next week; while the central bank of Mexico is set publish the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. Other important releases include: Canada new house prices, housing starts and building permits; Mexico inflation, industrial output and car production; and Brazil consumer prices and retail sales.

In the UK, monthly GDP figures from the ONS are expected to point to an economic growth of 0.3 percent during May, boosted by the steepest expansion in industrial production since November 2016 on the back of a sharp recovery in manufacturing. Investors will also keep an eye on foreign trade balance, construction output and the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report. Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB publishes its June meeting minutes, which are likely to provide some insight into monetary policy easing discussions. Meanwhile, German industrial output data is forecast to show a slight recovery in production during May, after posting the sharpest contraction since August 2015 in the previous month. Other key data include: the Eurozone, France and Italy industrial activity rates; Germany trade balance; Ireland Q1 GDP growth and consumer prices; Sweden inflation rate; and Switzerland unemployment data.

China's trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Also, the country’s consumer price inflation is set to remain at an over year high while producer prices will probably rise at a slower pace. Meanwhile, Japan will be publishing machinery orders, current account, Eco Watchers Survey, average cash earnings and producer inflation. In Australia, investors will focus on NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence; while India will be providing updated figures for inflation and industrial output.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Taiwan trade balance; New Zealand business NZ PMI; Singapore Q2 GDP growth; South Korea unemployment rate; and the Philippines trade balance. Also, central banks in Malaysia and Israel will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/5/2019 5:55:16 PM