On July 15th, the Bank of Japan decided unanimously to continue increasing monetary base at an annual pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion and lowered growth outlook for the fiscal year of 2014 to 1 percent.
The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.
The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 50 trillion yen, and the average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchases will be about seven years. The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 1 trillion yen and about 30 billion yen respectively. As for CP and corporate bonds, the Bank will maintain their amounts outstanding at about 2.2 trillion yen and about 3.2 trillion yen respectively.
Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, although the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike has been observed. Overseas economies -- mainly advanced economies -- are recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. Exports have recently leveled off more or less. Business fixed investment has increased moderately as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level.
With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery as a trend, while it will be affected by the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be around 1¼ percent for some time.
Compared with the forecast presented in the April 2014, the growth rate and year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI will likely be broadly in line with the April forecasts. For fiscal year of 2015, the real GDP is expected at 1.5 percent, while for the 2016 it is projected at 1.3 percent. The CPI for fiscal year of 2015 is expected at 2.6 percent and for the 2016 is at 2.8 percent, the same figures with the forecasts made in April 2014.
Risks to the outlook include developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, the prospects for the European debt problem, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy.
Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) has been exerting its intended effects, and the Bank will continue with the QQE, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate.
7/15/2014 5:01:11 AM