Week Ahead

Central banks in the US, UK and Japan will be deciding on monetary policy next week, with markets anticipating a 25bps rate cut from the Fed. Other important releases include: US jobs report, trade balance, personal income and outlays, ISM Manufacturing PMI, construction spending and factory orders; UK Gfk consumer confidence, Markit Manufacturing and Construction PMIs; Eurozone Q2 GDP growth, inflation rate, business survey; Germany GfK consumer confidence, jobless data and retail sales; Japan consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment, industrial production; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Australia Q2 inflation rate, private sector credit and retail trade. Investors will also react to US-China trade talks.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 7/26/2019 5:13:36 PM
The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates by 25bps when it meets on Wednesday, amid global growth concerns and muted inflation pressures as trade tensions continue to weigh on exports and manufacturing. Regarding the US economic calendar, notable publications are nonfarm payrolls, foreign trade balance, personal income and outlays, ISM Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, factory orders, Case-Shiller home prices, pending home sales, Q2 employment costs, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI and the final readings of Michigan consumer sentiment and Markit Manufacturing PMI.

Trade talks will also be keenly watched, as top US and Chinese negotiators meet in Beijing for the first time since presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to restart talks.

Other key data for America include: Canada trade balance; Mexico preliminary reading of Q2 GDP growth, business confidence and unemployment; Brazil jobless rate, industrial output and trade balance. The Central Bank of Brazil will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK investors turn their attention to the Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold. Inflation remains in line with the 2 percent target while fears of a no-deal Brexit mount after Boris Johnson became the new prime minister. Investors will also keep an eye on Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and construction sectors, Gfk consumer confidence, Nationwide house prices and Bank of England’s monetary indicators.

Elsewhere in Europe, flash estimates of the Eurozone second-quarter GDP growth rate will most likely show a slowdown in the bloc’s economy while inflation is seen falling to near 1-1/2-year low in July. Other key economic data include: Euro Area business survey, unemployment rate and retail trade; Germany GfK consumer confidence, jobless data and retail sales; France, Spain and Italy preliminary second-quarter GDP growth rates; Turkey economic confidence and foreign trade; and Switzerland KOF leading indicators and inflation rate.

The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected. Elsewhere, investors will be waiting for consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment, industrial production, housing starts and the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI. In China, the NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI will probably point to a further contraction in factory activity during July while the service sector is seen growing. Meanwhile, in Australia investors will focus on Q2 consumer and producer prices, with forecasts pointing to an increase in inflation from a two-and-half year low. Other releases include private sector credit, retail trade, AIG and CommBank manufacturing PMIs, HIA new home sales and building permits.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India Markit Manufacturing PMI; Hong Kong and Taiwan Q2 GDP growth rates; South Korea business confidence, retail sales, industrial production, inflation and trade balance; Indonesia inflation rate; and Malaysia trade balance.

Week Ahead