The annual inflation rate in Italy is expected to decrease further to 0.5 percent in July of 2019 from 0.7 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate since February of 2018.
Year-on-year, energy cost is expected to fall (-1.0 percent vs 2.6 percent in June), dragged down by a decline of regulated energy products prices (-3.1 percent vs 4.3 percent). Meanwhile, food including alcohol cost is seen rising (0.9 percent vs 0.3 percent), mainly due to higher prices of unprocessed food (1.6 percent vs 0.7 percent).
Cost is expected to slow for housing & utilities (0.3 percent vs 3.2 percent); miscellaneous goods & services (1.4 percent vs 1.6 percent); clothing & footwear (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent) and restaurants & hotels (1.1 percent vs 1.4 percent). On the other hand, food & non-alcoholic beverages prices are seen increasing (1.0 percent vs 0.3 percent) while inflation should be steady for transport (at 0.8 percent); health (at 0.5 percent) and for furniture & household equipment (at 0.1 percent).
Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is expected to decrease to 0.4 percent in July from 0.5 percent in the prior month. Excluding only energy, inflation should increase be steady at 0.5 percent.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices should increase 0.1 percent in July, the same pace as in the previous month and in line with market expectations.
The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to rise 0.4 percent from the previous year (from 0.8 percent in June); and to fall 1.7 percent month-over-month, after rising 0.1 percent in June.
7/31/2019 11:30:48 AM