Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, and producer prices; UK Q2 GDP growth, business investment, foreign trade, manufacturing and construction output; Germany factory orders and trade balance; China trade figures, consumer and producer prices, and Caixin Services PMI; Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines Q2 GDP growth rates; and Australia trade balance. Investors will also react to central bank policy meetings in Australia, New Zealand and India.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 8/3/2019 2:42:26 PM
In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably pick up from the previous month's two-year low as business acivity is seen growing at slightly faster pace in July. Other notable publications are JOLTs job openings, producer prices, IBD/TIPP economic optimism, total vehicle sales, government's budget statement, and and the final readings of Markit Services PMI and wholesale inventories.

Investors will also be expecting any further developments on trade negotiations, after tensions escalated between Washington and Beijing following the President Trump's threat to impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods from September 1st.

The UK will publish its preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP growth, alongside business investment, trade balance, manufacturing and construction output. Market forecasts point to stagnation, which would be the economy's worst performance since the last quarter of 2012, as Brexit and political uncertainty bites. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone, Germany and France will publish final figures for Markit Services PMI, while Italy and Spain are releasing flash estimates. Other key data include: Germany factory orders, industrial production and trade balance; France trade data and industrial output; Switzerland consumer survey and retail sales; and Turkey inflation rate.

All eyes are on China’s trade balance, with markets expecting a 2.2 percent fall in exports and a 7.6 percent plunge in imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. The country will also be releasing its Caixin Composite and Services PMIs, consumer and producer inflation. Consumer prices will probably rise 2.7 percent, the same pace as in June, while producer prices should fall back into deflationary territory.

In Japan, the preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP will be keenly watched, with traders anticipating a sharp slowdown in economic growth on the back of weak external demand. Other important releases include: final Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs, Eco Watchers Survey, leading and coincident indexes, and household spending.

Central banks in India and New Zealand are expected to cut benchmark interest rates by 25bps next week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will most likely leave monetary policy unchanged. Key data for Australia are final CommBank Composite and Services PMIs, AIG services and construction indexes, trade balance, current account, home loans and ANZ job advertisements. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate; India Nikkei Services PMI; Indonesia Q2 GDP growth and business confidence; Thailand interest rate decision; the Philippines Q2 GDP growth, inflation, trade balance and interest rate decision; and Hong Kong Markit PMI.

Week Ahead