Thailand Quarterly GDP Growth Weakest in 3 Quarters


Thailand's economy expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2019, slowing from a 1 percent growth in the previous period and missing market expectations of a 0.7 percent advance. This marked the lowest quarterly growth rate since a 0.2 percent contraction in the September quarter 2018, as private consumption growth was nearly steady, while there was a decline in both government spending and gross fixed capital formation.

On the expenditure side, private consumption rose by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, little-changed from a 1 percent increase in the prior quarter. At the same time, government spending  declined by 1.3 percent, the first quarterly decrease in three quarters, following a 1.7 percent growth in Q1. Also, gross fixed capital formation dropped 0.7 percent, the first quarterly fall in two years, after a 0.7 percent gain in Q1. Meanwhile, net external demand contributed positively to growth, as exports of goods and services rose 1.5 percent (from -4.1 percent in Q1), while imports contracted further -1.0 percent (from -2.3 percent in Q1).

On the production side, growth in the agriculture sector eased sharply (4.4 percent vs 11.9 percent in Q1), while non-agriculture rebounded (0.3 percent vs -0.2 percent). Within non-agriculture, there was an upturn  in both industrial sub-sector (0.4 percent vs -1.7 percent in Q1) and mining and quarrying (7.2 percent vs -2 percent), and a faster rise in electricity, gas, steam and airconditioning supply (2.1 percent vs 0.8 percent), while both manufacturing (-0.5 percent vs -1.7 percent) and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (-0.1 percent vs -2.5 percent) decining less. At the same time, the service sector grew at a softer pace (0.2 percent vs 0.8 percent), mainly led by construction (0.4 percent vs 1.4 percent); health and social work (0.5 percent vs 1 percent); arts, entertainment and recreation (0.9 percent vs 1 percent), while output fell for transport & storage (-0.1 percent vs 0.1 percent); accommodation & food services (-0.6 percent vs 1.6 percent); real estate (-0.7 percent vs 1 percent); public administration and defence (-0.4 percent vs 1.4 percent), and education (-0.5 percent vs 1.8 percent).

Meantime, amid weakening global demand and ongoing trade conflict between US and China, the government revised down 2019 GDP growth forecast to a range of 2.7 to 3.2 percent from an earlier projections of 3.3 to 3.8 percent. It also saw 2019 exports to contract 1.2 percent, instead of 2.2 percent growth previously estimated.

Thailand Quarterly GDP Growth Weakest in 3 Quarters


NESDB l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
8/19/2019 9:12:23 AM