Week Ahead

Next week the second estimate of US Q2 GDP growth will be keenly watched, alongside personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, and pending home sales. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK Gfk consumer confidence and monetary indicators; Eurozone flash inflation, business survey and jobless rate; Germany retail trade, business and consumer morale; Japan consumer confidence, industrial output, and retail sales; China NBS PMI survey; Australia building permits and private sector credit; and Canada and India Q2 GDP growth rates.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 8/23/2019 4:51:37 PM
Next week the US will be publishing the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 2 percent, slightly weaker than initially thought. Other notable publications are personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, flash estimates of wholesale inventories and goods trade balance, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Investors will also be expecting any further developments on trade negotiations amid escalating tensions, after Beijing announced it will impose additional tariffs on US imports worth about $75 billion in response to the recent US tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

Other important releases for America include Canada Q2 GDP figures, current account, producer prices, average weekly earnings, and budget balance; Mexico trade balance, unemployment rate; and Brazil Q2 economic growth, jobless rate, current account, and bank lending. The Bank of Mexico will be publishing inflation report and monetary policy minutes, while the Central Bank of Brazil will be releasing its weekly Focus Market Readout with several projections for the country's main macroeconomic variables.

In the UK, important releases include Gfk consumer confidence, nationwide housing prices and Bank of England’s monetary indicators. Elsewhere in Europe, several countries will publish second-quarter GDP growth figures, with Germany, France and Italy releasing their final figures. Germany's economic contraction is likely to be confirmed, adding to fears that the bloc's largest economy could fall into recession due to a prolonged trade war between the US and China. In addition, the country's Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer confidence should point to a further deterioration in business and consumer morale. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone flash inflation, business survey and jobless rate; Germany unemployment data and retail sales; France and Italy industry and consumer sentiment; Switzerland KOF leading indicators; and Turkey manufacturing confidence and trade balance.

In Japan, investors will focus on consumer confidence, preliminary estimate of industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, unemployment rate and Tokyo inflation. Meanwhile in China, the NBS will provide an update on manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, with markets expecting a further contraction in factory activity. Australia will be releasing Q2 construction work done, private capital expenditure, building permits and private sector credit. The Bank of Korea will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected, after a 25 bps rate cut in the previous meeting. On the economic data front, South Korea's important releases include consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include India Q2 GDP growth and New Zealand trade balance.

Week Ahead