Week Ahead


Next week the Federal Reserve will be deciding on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a 25bps hike. Key economic data include: US final Q2 GDP growth, personal spending and income, PCE prices, durable goods orders and new home sales; UK final Q2 GDP growth, consumer confidence and CBI factory orders; Eurozone inflation and business survey; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Japan unemployment, industrial output and retail trade.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn their attention to next week's FOMC meeting at which the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps. The Fed will also provide an update for its quarterly economic projections as focus is increasingly shifting to the outlook for next year. Policymakers will have in consideration labor-market data for August, which showed wages rising by the most since the end of the recession amid a strong labor market and a sustained expansion of economic activity. Regarding the economic calendar, the BEA is set to publish final estimates of second-quarter GDP growth, alongside personal spending and income, and PCE prices. In addition, durable goods orders and new home sales will also be in the spotlight.

Other important releases for America include Canada monthly GDP, Brazil unemployment and Mexico trade balance.

The UK will be publishing final estimates of second-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside current account. Preliminary figures from the ONS pointed to a pick up in Britain's economic growth boosted by a further increase in household consumption and a rebound in business investment. Furthermore, September's Gfk consumer confidence indicator is likely to show a deterioration in consumer morale amid persistent Brexit uncertainty; while the CBI is set to publish its gauge for factory orders.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors await the release of the Eurozone inflation and business survey. Consumer prices are expected to increase at a slightly faster pace, while morale is likely to soften across the bloc. In addition, Germany is set to publish unemployment figures.

In China the NBS will publish figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, and Markit will release its Caixin Manufacturing PMI, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during September. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include Japan unemployment, industrial output and retail trade, while central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines will meet to set monetary policy.

World leaders will meet at the United Nations General Assembly from September 25th. The official theme for 2018 is Making the United Nations relevant to all people: global leadership and shared responsibilities for peaceful, equitable and sustainable societies.


Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
9/21/2018 3:54:19 PM