Week Ahead

Next week important releases include US jobs report, ISM PMIs, trade balance, construction spending, and factory orders; UK final Q2 GDP growth and Markit PMIs; Eurozone inflation rate, retail trade and unemployment; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Japan Tankan business survey, consumer confidence and industrial output; Australia trade balance and retail sales; India Manufacturing PMI; and South Korea trade balance and inflation. Central banks in Australia and India will be deciding on monetary policy.

The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 162 thousand in September, after a smaller-than-expected 130 thousand rise last month. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to stagnation in manufacturing activity following a contraction in August; while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably ease from the previous month. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, total vehicle sales, and final Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada monthly GDP, trade balance and Ivey PMI; Mexico business and consumer confidence; and Brazil industrial production and trade balance.

The UK will publish the final estimate of second-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside monetary indicators, current account and new car sales. Figures from the ONS are expected to confirm the Britain’s economy contracted for the first time in nearly seven years. Also, Markit Economics data will provide an update on manufacturing, services and construction sectors during September.

Elsewhere in Europe, preliminary inflation rates for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Spain will be in the spotlight, as well as retail trade and unemployment data for the Eurozone and Germany, and flash PMI figures for Italy and Spain. Markets will also focus on: Turkey consumer price data, trade balance and Manufacturing PMI; Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators, inflation and retail sales; and Poland interest rate decision.

In China, the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will probably suggest there was a further contraction in the manufacturing sector and a pick up in non-manufacturing expansion during September. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is set to point to modest growth in the sector.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from board members. The country will also provide updated figures for Tankan business survey, consumer confidence, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, unemployment rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps for the third time this year, bringing borrowing costs to a new record low. On the economic data front, important releases include trade figures, retail sales, private sector credit, building permits, AIG manufacturing and services indexes and HIA new home sales. The Reserve Bank of India will also be deciding on monetary policy.

Other key highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India Manufacturing PMI; South Korea trade figures, consumer inflation, industrial production, retail sales and business sentiment; New Zealand building permits; Vietnam third-quarter GDP growth; Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines inflation rates; and Malaysia foreign trade.

Chinese markets will be closed from October 1st to 7th to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China; while in Hong Kong markets will be closed on October 1st. Also, stock markets in India and Germany will be closed on October 2nd for Mahatma Gandhi's Birthday and National Day respectively.

Week Ahead

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
9/27/2019 3:01:38 PM