Week Ahead

Next week important releases include US jobs report, trade balance, ISM PMIs, factory orders and construction spending; UK monetary indicators and Markit PMIs; Eurozone unemployment and retail trade; Germany factory orders; Japan business and consumer morale; Australia trade balance and retail sales; Turkey inflation; and interest rate decisions from India, Australia and Mexico.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated September's jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a 184 thousand gain in payrolls. This follows last month's strong data, which showed a pick up in employment growth and the fastest increase in wages since the end of the recession. In addition, the Census Bureau is set to publish trade balance, factory orders and construction spending; and the Institute for Supply Management will release figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during September. ADP employment change, total vehicle sales and final Markit PMIs will also be in the spotlight.

Several Fed officials including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due to speak at respective events next week, with investors looking for further clues about the monetary policy path. 

Other important releases for America include Canada employment figures, foreign trade and Ivey PMI; Mexico interest rate decision; and Brazil inflation, industrial production and trade balance. On October 7th Brazil will go to the polls for general elections. Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right nationalist, continues to lead opinion polls.

In the UK investors will turn their attention to Markit PMIs and Bank of England's monetary indicators. A slowdown in manufacturing, construction and services growth is widely expected. Elsewhere in Europe, traders are eyeing the publication of the Eurozone unemployment and retail trade, as well as Germany factory orders and Turkey inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India will meet to set monetary policy, with markets anticipating a 25bps hike, aiming to support a falling rupee. The Indian currency already lost nearly 13 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year amid a widening current account deficit due to high bill for oil purchases and rising investment concerns about emerging markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia will also decide on monetary policy, although investors anticipate no changes.

The Bank of Japan will release its closely watched quarterly Tankan survey, which is likely to show a slight improvement in confidence among the country's biggest manufacturers. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include Japan consumer confidence; Australia trade balance, retail sales, and AIG indices for manufacturing and services; Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea inflation rates; and India Nikkei PMIs.

Chinese markets are closed for national Golden Week holiday next week.

Week Ahead

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
9/28/2018 5:21:13 PM