Week Ahead


Next week important releases include US jobs report, trade balance, ISM Manufacturing PMI, factory orders, personal income & spending and PCE prices; interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan; UK Gfk consumer confidence and Markit Manufacturing and Construction PMIs; Eurozone Q3 GDP growth, business survey, inflation and jobless rate; Germany retail trade; Japan consumer morale, unemployment, retail sales and industrial output; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Australia trade balance, retail sales and Q3 inflation rate. Investors will also react to UK budget announcement on Monday and Brazil's presidential run-off.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated October's jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a 190 thousand gain in payrolls after job creation fell to the lowest level in a year in September. In addition, the Census Bureau is set to publish trade balance, factory orders and construction spending; and the Institute for Supply Management will release figures for its manufacturing PMI. ADP employment change, personal income and spending, PCE prices, labor productivity and costs, Case-Shiller house prices, CB consumer confidence, and final Markit PMIs will also be in the spotlight.

Other important releases for America include Canada employment figures, foreign trade and monthly GDP; Mexico third-quarter GDP growth; and Brazil interest rate decision with markets anticipating no changes in monetary policy, unemployment, industrial production and trade balance. Markets will also react to Brazil's presidential run-off on Sunday.

In the UK the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected as worries over the potential of the UK leaving the EU without a deal mount. The bank will also release its monetary indicators. Furthermore, October's Gfk consumer confidence gauge is likely to show a deterioration in consumer morale amid persistent Brexit uncertainty; while Markit manufacturing and construction PMIs are set to point to a slowdown in activity growth.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, will announce on Monday the government's plans for tax and spending for the next financial year. This is the last Budget before Brexit and the first since Theresa May promised an end to austerity measures.  

Elsewhere in Europe, traders are eyeing the publication of the Eurozone third-quarter GDP growth, business survey, inflation and jobless rate; Germany retail trade; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, consumer sentiment and inflation; and Turkey trade balance.

The Bank of Japan will meet to set monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes. The country's consumer confidence, unemployment, retail sales and industrial output will also be watched. In China the NBS will publish figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, and Markit will release its Caixin Manufacturing PMI, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during October. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include Australia trade balance, third-quarter inflation, retail sales, private sector credit and AIG manufacturing index; Indonesia and South Korea inflation rates; and India Manufacturing PMI.


Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
10/27/2018 8:59:19 AM