Italy Inflation Rate Steady at 3-Year Low of 0.3%


The annual inflation rate in Italy is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3 percent in October 2019, the lowest since November 2016 and slightly above market forecasts of 0.2 percent, preliminary estimates showed. Higher food prices should be partly offset by a further decline in those of housing & utilities.

Year-on-year, prices might advance further for food & non-alcoholic beverages (1.1 percent vs 0.6 percent in September), namely processed food (0.7 percent vs 0.2 percent), while they are expected to fall more deeply for housing & utilities (-1.9 percent vs -0.4 percent), weighed down by regulated energy products (-8.3 percent vs -5.2 percent); as well as for recreation & culture (-0.3 percent vs -0.1 percent). Meanwhile, cost must be flat for transport (vs -0.7 percent), driven by services related to transport (1.9 percent vs 0.4 percent). At the same time, inflation is expected to ease for restaurants & hotels (1.5 percent vs 1.6 percent) and health (0.6 percent vs 0.7 percent) while must be steady for miscellaneous goods & services (at 1.7 percent). 

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, should edge up to 0.8 percent in October, the highest level since August last year, from 0.6 percent in the previous month. Excluding only energy, inflation should rise further to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are likely to be flat, after decreasing 0.6 percent in the previous month and against market expectations of a 0.1 percent drop.

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to rise 0.2 percent from the previous year (the same pace as in September); and to advance 0.2 percent month-over-month (vs 1.4 percent in September).


Italy Inflation Rate Steady at 3-Year Low of 0.3%


Istat | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com
10/31/2019 11:53:19 AM