Week Ahead


Next week the FOMC minutes will be keenly watched, alongside US second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, personal spending and income, PCE prices, new and pending home sales; UK consumer confidence and monetary indicators; Eurozone business survey, inflation and jobless rate; Germany retail trade; Japan consumer confidence, unemployment and flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI; China NBS PMIs; and Q3 GDP estimates for India, Canada and Brazil.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes release for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy path. Expectations suggest a rate hike at its next meeting in December is likely. In addition, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and November's personal spending and income, alongside PCE prices, will also be watched. Flash figures from the BEA showed the US economy grew an annualized 3.5 percent in the three months to September mainly boosted by consumer spending and inventories while investment in structures fell the most in nearly three years, residential continued to contract and net trade made the biggest drag on growth since the second quarter of 1985. Other important releases include: new and pending home sales; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; S&P/Case-Shiller home prices; and advance estimates of wholesale inventories and goods trade balance.

Several Fed officials including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due to speak at respective events next week.

Investors will also focus on US-China trade talks as President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina.

Other key highlights for America include Canada Q3 GDP growth rate and current account; Brazil Q3 GDP growth rate and unemployment; and Mexico trade balance and jobless rate.

In the UK the Bank of England will release its monetary indicators. Furthermore, November's Gfk consumer confidence gauge is likely to show a deterioration in consumer morale amid persistent Brexit uncertainty.

Elsewhere in Europe, traders are eyeing the publication of the Eurozone business survey, inflation and jobless rate; Germany retail trade, unemployment, and consumer and business confidence; updated estimates to GDP for Italy and France; Switzerland Q3 economic growth and KOF leading indicators; and Turkey industry morale and trade balance.

In Japan consumer confidence, unemployment, retail sales, industrial output and flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI will be in the spotlight. In October, the country's household morale fell to the lowest level since January 2017 despite a jobless rate close to its historical low. In China the NBS will publish figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during November. The Bank of Korea will hold its monetary policy meeting amid concerns over financial imbalances, but no changes are expected. The country's foreign trade and consumer and business morale will also be watched. Meanwhile, India's economic growth is likely to slow to 7.6 percent in the third quarter from a two-year high of 8.2 percent in the previous period. Investors will also be waiting for Australia's private sector credit, construction work done, private capital expenditure and HIA new home sales.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/23/2018 8:23:19 PM