Week Ahead


Next week important releases include US jobs report, trade balance, ISM PMIs, factory orders and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment; interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India; UK Markit PMIs; Eurozone final Q3 GDP growth and retail trade; Germany factory orders and industrial production; China trade balance, inflation and Caixin PMIs; and Australia Q3 GDP growth, foreign trade and retail sales. Investors will also react to next week's OPEC meeting.

Next week the US will be publishing its November's jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a 200 thousand gain in payrolls, after the economy added a better-than-expected 250 thousand jobs in October and annual wage growth was the highest since 2009. In addition, the Census Bureau is set to publish trade balance, factory orders and construction spending; and the Institute for Supply Management will release figures for its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during November. December's preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected to show a further deterioration in consumer morale and the final Markit PMIs are set to confirm private sector activity growth slowed in November. ADP employment change, alongside ISM New York Index, consumer credit and vehicle sales will also be in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will meet to set monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes. Other important releases for America include Canada employment figures and foreign trade; Brazil inflation, industrial production and trade balance; and Mexico inflation.

In the UK Markit PMIs for the manufacturing and service sectors are expected to show an acceleration in growth while that for construction is set to point to a slowdown in activity. The Bank of England's gauge measuring consumer inflation expectations for the fourth quarter will also be released.

Elsewhere in Europe, traders are eyeing the publication of the Eurozone final Q3 GDP growth and retail sales; Germany factory orders and industrial production, which combined should add to concerns about the bloc's largest economy; Italy and Spain flash Markit PMIs; Switzerland retail sales and inflation; France trade balance and industrial output; and Greece Q3 GDP growth. In addition, Turkey's inflation figures for November are likely to show a slowdown in consumer prices following the recent currency crisis.

All eyes are on China's trade balance, inflation and Caixin PMIs. Export and import growth will probably slow in November amid ongoing trade tensions with the US, and consumer prices are expected to rise 2.4 percent, easing from a 2.5 percent advance in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Also, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to hold rates at current levels when it meets on Wednesday. Last month policymakers surprised markets by leaving rates unchanged, following August's 25bps hike, amid a falling currency and rising inflationary pressures from oil prices. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia Q3 GDP growth, trade balance, retail sales and AIG Services index; Japan final Markit Manufacturing PMI; India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI; South Korea inflation and final Q3 GDP growth; Indonesia and the Philippines inflation rates; Malaysia trade balance.

Market watchers will also pay attention to next week's OPEC meeting, in which oil producers are expected to announce output cuts to support prices. Crude oil dropped below USD 50 a barrel this week amid persistent concerns about excess global supply.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/30/2018 7:31:55 PM