Week Ahead

Next week the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important releases include: US final Q3 GDP growth, durable goods orders, personal spending and income, PCE prices and housing data; UK final Q3 GDP growth, consumer confidence, inflation and retail sales; Germany consumer and business morale; Japan inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data; New Zealand Q3 GDP growth; and interest rate decisions from Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 12/14/2018 6:06:35 PM
It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn their attention to next week's FOMC meeting at which the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates by 25 bps. The Fed has already raised its benchmark federal funds rate three times this year supported by solid economic growth and strong labor market and despite heavy criticism from President Donald Trump and recent volatility in financial markets. Fed officials will also update their forecasts having previously suggested three rate increases are likely in 2019. Regarding the economic calendar, the final estimate of Q3 GDP growth, November's durable goods orders, alongside personal spending, income and PCE prices will be watched. Traders will also be looking for indications about the state of the US housing market as key data such as building permits, housing starts, existing home sales and NAHB housing index are released. Other important data include: Q3 current account; overall net capital flows; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Other important releases for America include Canada monthly GDP, inflation and retail trade; Mexico and Colombia interest rate decisions; and Argentina Q3 GDP growth.

In the UK the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected as Brexit uncertainties remain. Prime Minister Theresa May has postponed the final vote on her withdrawal agreement in order to seek new assurances from Brussels. However, the EU says it is not open for renegotiation and most likely she will fail to gather enough support when she eventually brings it back for a vote. On the economic data front, November's inflation is expected to slow down; the Gfk consumer confidence to deteriorate further; and the final estimate of Q3 GDP growth should confirm the economy grew at its fastest pace in two years on the back of household spending and exports. Retail sales, CBI factory orders and current account will also be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, market players will keep an eye on the Eurozone consumer survey, construction activity and trade data; Germany and Italy consumer and business climate; France industry sentiment; and Turkey consumer morale and unemployment. Also, central banks from Sweden and Czechia will be deciding on monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan will also be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. The country will also be publishing trade figures and inflation rate for November. Core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1 percent. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing its minutes from December’s meeting, with investors waiting for further clues on the next monetary policy move. Also, the country's employment data, HIA new home sales and Westpac leading index will be followed. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand Q3 GDP growth; Malaysia inflation; and interest decisions from Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan.

Week Ahead