Week Ahead


Next week important releases include US non-farm payrolls, alongside unemployment and wage growth, ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment change; UK Markit PMIs and monetary indicators; Eurozone inflation; Germany unemployment figures; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand inflation rates; Turkey inflation and foreign trade; and Markit PMIs worldwide.

Next week the US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report. Market forecasts point to a payroll increase of 178 thousand in December, which would push total employment over the 150 million mark for the first time, while annual wage growth is expected to remain close to its strongest level since April 2009. In addition, the Institute for Supply Management will release figures for its Manufacturing PMI, which is likely to show a slowdown in factory activity growth during December. ADP employment change, alongside Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, vehicle sales and final Markit PMIs will also be in the spotlight. Construction spending data scheduled for release on Thursday may be postponed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown.

Several Fed officials including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due to speak at respective events next week.

Other important releases for America include Canada employment figures, Brazil trade balance and Mexico business confidence. Also, investors will be waiting for the Banxico's monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday for further clues about the monetary policy path.

In the UK Markit PMIs are set to point to a slowdown in manufacturing and construction sectors and an acceleration in services growth. In addition, the Bank of England will release its monetary indicators. Elsewhere in Europe, traders are eyeing the publication of the Eurozone inflation, which is expected to slow; Germany unemployment data; and Turkey inflation, alongside producer prices, Manufacturing PMI and trade balance. Also, final Markit PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany are expected to confirm a slowdown in output growth, while for France is likely to confirm a contraction. Furthermore, Italy's factory activity is seen to fall further, after shrinking the most in nearly four years in November.

In China the NBS will be releasing figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, and Markit will publish its Caixin Manufacturing PMI, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during December. The official PMI is forecast to slip to 49.9, pointing to the first contraction in the manufacturing sector since July 2016; and the Caixin PMI is expected to show only marginal growth, falling to 50.1 from 50.2 in the previous month. Meanwhile, South Korea will be publishing trade balance and December’s consumer price report. Market forecasts point to a slowdown in inflation to 1.7 percent in December from 2 percent in November. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Australia CommBank PMIs and private sector credit; India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI; Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand inflation rates; Singapore preliminary Q4 GDP growth; and Malaysia trade figures.

Japan's stock market will be closed until January 3rd.

Week Ahead


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/29/2018 10:09:43 AM