Australia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent
Balance of Trade 1551.00 600 2000 1354 1339 -500 AUD Million
Government Debt to GDP 41.90 42.5 42.5 41 41 38 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 0.73
0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.7
Stock Market 6177.76
points
6308 6263 6219 6176 6005
Government Bond 10Y 2.72
percent
2.6 2.64 2.69 2.73 2.9
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40
percent
2.7 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.4
GDP 1323.42
USD Billion
1450 1450 1580 1580 1720
GDP Constant Prices 441942.00
AUD Million
436153 444886 448237 452107 466952
Gross National Product 442164.00
AUD Million
435784 443361 450675 452334 465352
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 110021.00
AUD Million
110000 111000 113000 113000 117000
GDP per capita 55925.93
USD
56220 56220 56890 56890 57160
GDP per capita PPP 44648.71
USD
45100 45100 45500 45500 46000
GDP From Agriculture 10402.00
AUD Million
10687 10667 10558 10641 11197
GDP From Construction 33503.00
AUD Million
32703 33741 33620 34274 35415
GDP From Manufacturing 25521.00
AUD Million
25828 26019 26517 26108 27310
GDP From Mining 26745.00
AUD Million
25310 26077 26943 27360 27370
GDP From Public Administration 24245.00
AUD Million
23719 24324 24646 24803 25531
GDP From Utilities 10636.00
AUD Million
10652 10747 10748 10881 11280
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6
Employed Persons 12631.28
Thousand
12660 12710 12820 12900 13500
Unemployed Persons 708.77
Thousand
712 709 707 706 702
Part Time Employment 10250.00
Persons
8537 7589 7526 7524 6900
Full Time Employment 33700.00
Persons
13447 11039 10482 10397 10376
Employment Change 44000.00
Persons
23014 17100 22869 22881 15600
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70
percent
65.6 65.6 65.8 65.7 66
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.70
percent
12.2 12 12.8 12.2 13
Productivity 101.80
Index Points
102 101 101 102 102
Labour Costs 100.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Job Vacancies 234.20
Thousand
246 253 257 259 257
Job Advertisements 177241.00
177013 177068 176990 176924 176792
Wages 1207.40
AUD/Week
1210 1210 1230 1230 1300
Wages In Manufacturing 1304.50
AUD/Week
1310 1310 1350 1350 1400
Wage Growth 2.10
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 1.99 3.3
Minimum Wages 719.20
AUD/week
719 719 740 740 760
Population 24.70
Million
25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 26
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.25 65 66
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 66 66 66
Living Wage Family 3420.00
AUD/Month
3500 3500 3600 3442 3600
Living Wage Individual 2420.00
AUD/Month
2431 2432 2431 2431 2430
Wages Low Skilled 2440.00
AUD/Month
2481 2481 2506 2494 2506
Wages High Skilled 6110.00
AUD/Month
6200 6200 6200 6144 6300
Employment Rate 62.10
percent
62.12 62.15 62.17 62.19 62.22
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 1
Consumer Price Index CPI 113.00
Index Points
114 115 115 115 121
Core Consumer Prices 114.25
Index Points
115 115 116 116 120
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.82 1.83 2.1
GDP Deflator 106.48
Index Points
107 107 107 108 111
Producer Prices 109.40
Index Points
110 111 111 111 115
Producer Prices Change 1.50
percent
2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9
Export Prices 96.50
Index Points
96.2 94.78 93.27 92.78 94
Import Prices 110.00
Index Points
110 110 109 109 106
Food Inflation 0.30
percent
1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 2
Inflation Expectations 4.00
percent
4 3.9 4.1 4 3.9
CPI Housing Utilities 120.80
Index Points
122 123 123 123 129
CPI Transportation 105.50
Index Points
103 105 106 108 111
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2
Interbank Rate 2.26
percent
2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.76
Money Supply M0 108.69
AUD Billion
109 109 109 109 109
Money Supply M1 352.84
AUD Billion
354 357 359 362 389
Money Supply M3 2074.81
AUD Billion
2081 2090 2099 2108 2180
Banks Balance Sheet 4268.34
AUD Billion
4100 4075 4050 4060 4100
Central Bank Balance Sheet 175565.00
AUD Million
178384 178833 178826 178826 178826
Foreign Exchange Reserves 70975.00
AUD Million
70221 71740 71511 71538 71558
Loans to Private Sector 927.00
AUD Billion
933 941 949 955 994
Deposit Interest Rate 1.90
percent
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4
Private Debt to GDP 204.90
percent
200 200 196 196 191
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1551.00
AUD Million
600 2000 1354 1339 -500
Exports 36070.00
AUD Million
31200 33000 36165 36166 34500
Imports 34519.00
AUD Million
30600 31000 34811 34827 35000
Current Account -13472.00
AUD Million
-13243 -19000 -13023 -12978 -22900
Current Account to GDP -3.10
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.3
External Debt 2045588.00
AUD Million
2072865 2092303 2113446 2135704 2366661
Terms of Trade 87.70
Index Points
87.22 86.74 85.37 85.48 88.47
Foreign Direct Investment 60499.00
AUD Million
51675 52665 50966 49267 56688
Capital Flows 12538.00
AUD Million
13182 13482 12477 12526 12677
Tourist Arrivals 646700.00
680500 1022100 785600 780800 1080400
Gold Reserves 72.80
Tonnes
72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79 72.79
Crude Oil Production 272.00
BBL/D/1K
274 274 274 274 274
Terrorism Index 3.09
2.18 1.93 1.82 1.71 2.39
Weapons Sales 97.00
USD Million
94.08 88.88 89.28 89.68 102
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.90
percent
42.5 42.5 41 41 38
Government Budget -1.90
percent of GDP
-1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3
Government Budget Value 10417.00
AUD Million
4379 8202 5759 8399 9014
Government Spending 85568.00
AUD Million
82714 85590 86657 87536 89835
Government Revenues 49256.00
AUD Million
42339 45435 43612 46262 46873
Fiscal Expenditure 38839.00
AUD Million
37960 37801 37853 37863 37859
Military Expenditure 26102.32
USD Million
25466 24976 24690 24404 25993
Asylum Applications 2042.00
Persons
2091 2088 2089 2089 2089
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20
percent
35.96 35.97 35.97 35.97 36.01
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 4.00
Index Points
11 10 9 6.06 6
Manufacturing PMI 56.70
56.4 57.1 56.2 55.8 52
Services PMI 52.20
Index Points
53.8 55 53.5 54.74 52.2
Industrial Production 4.40
percent
2.41 2.47 1.29 2.23 2.63
Industrial Production Mom 2.20
percent
0.52 0.15 0.1 0.59 0.48
Manufacturing Production 6.50
percent
-0.6 0.5 1.25 2.58 1
Capacity Utilization 82.27
percent
82.21 82.23 82.22 82.22 82.22
New Orders 31.00
Index Points
47.51 38.51 45.01 43.89 42.7
Changes in Inventories 1160.00
AUD Million
797 662 591 559 466
Bankruptcies 764.00
Companies
660 660 659 658 658
Corporate Profits 88467.00
AUD Million
88769 68900 87184 87048 59900
Total Vehicle Sales 85551.00
112960 99100 103819 102978 101000
Car Registrations 14078.61
Thousand
14200 14200 14260 14260 14350
Leading Economic Index 0.10
percent
0.2 0.1 0 -0.2 0.1
Small Business Sentiment 1.54
-4.81 2.15 -2.76 3.48 0.37
Internet Speed 11063.10
KBps
13737 14067 14383 14695 16567
IP Addresses 9859878.00
IP
9945263 9942116 9949235 9951342 9953818
Private Investment -2.50
percent
0.74 0.34 0.7 0.68 1.23
Mining Production 4.40
percent
0.9 1.2 3.56 4.38 4
Steel Production 515.57
Thousand Tonnes
512 516 516 516 516
Business Inventories 0.60
percent
0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
Competitiveness Index 5.19
Points
5.21 5.21 5.19 5.19 5.25
Competitiveness Rank 21.00
22 23 20 19 25
Composite Pmi 52.00
Index Points
55.1 53.9 53.5 53.8 56.5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 76 76 76 74
Corruption Rank 13.00
11 11 11 10 8
Ease of Doing Business 14.00
16 16 12 11 17
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.50
Index Points
101 104 99 105 104
Retail Sales MoM 0.00
percent
0.31 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Retail Sales YoY 3.20
percent
3.56 2.3 3.71 3.77 2.6
Consumer Spending 258440.00
AUD Million
255947 262252 262661 264384 275259
Disposable Personal Income 298813.00
AUD Million
301173 302807 304614 306406 323574
Personal Savings 1.00
percent
1.53 1.44 1.56 1.64 1.56
Consumer Credit 2750.93
AUD Billion
2769 2795 2821 2846 3073
Private Sector Credit 0.40
percent
0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Households Debt To Gdp 121.70
percent of GDP
122 122 122 122 123
Bank Lending Rate 8.65
percent
8.65 8.65 8.65 8.65 9.15
Gasoline Prices 1.07
USD/Liter
1.09 1.03 0.97 0.92 0.73
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits -5.20
percent
-2.2 3.2 0.41 0.41 2
New Home Sales 5065.00
5200 5000 4900 5791 5550
Housing Index -0.70
percent
-0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -0.57 2.1
Home Ownership Rate 65.00
percent
64 64 63.5 63.5 64
Construction Output 1.60
percent
0.8 1.5 0.6 0.55 0.2
Construction Pmi 51.80
Index Points
55.7 56 55.6 54 50
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 27.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 28.06
celsius
16.54 25.05 26.96 19.26 22.17
Precipitation 52.60
mm
19.33 36.65 71.17 40.27 39.33