The AIG Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index went up 1.6 points from the previous month to 54.7 in September 2019, the highest since April. Further expansion was mainly driven by new orders (+3.8 points to 57.1) and employment (+6.2 points to 57.6). In contrast, both production (-3.4 points to 49.8) and sales (-4.8 points to 49.5) shrank, dragged by a decline in exports (-6.1 points to 49.6). On the price front, inflation for inputs rose 5.7 points to 71.9, whereas selling prices declined 3.8 to 48.9. Within sectors, food & beverages stood well above average, edging up 0.2 to 59.2; in contrast, textiles contracted further (-0.5 to 41.8). Manufacturing PMI in Australia averaged 50.80 from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.50 in March of 2018 and a record low of 29.47 in February of 2009.
Manufacturing PMI in Australia is expected to be 52.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Australia to stand at 53.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 52.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.