Bahrain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.50 1.7 0.6 -1.1 1.2 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.8 3 3.1 3.1 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -263.20 -300 -300 -200 -200 500 BHD Million
Government Debt to GDP 90.60 96 96 99 99 102 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 1340.06
points
1220 1210 1210 1210 1080
Currency 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.50
percent
1.7 0.6 -1.1 1.2 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.20
percent
3.2 1.7 1.3 0.8 2.8
GDP 35.31
USD Billion
36 36 36.75 36.75 37
GDP Constant Prices 3043.83
BHD Million
3216 3110 3083 3144 3264
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3043.30
BHD Million
3092 3095 3083 3068 3249
GDP per capita 22111.50
USD
22287 22287 22352 22352 22790
GDP per capita PPP 43290.70
USD
43396 43396 43652 43652 44002
GDP From Agriculture 23.94
BHD Million
24.33 24.35 24.25 24.14 25.55
GDP From Construction 228.20
BHD Million
222 228 231 217 239
GDP From Manufacturing 465.00
BDT Million
461 464 471 450 487
GDP From Mining 483.90
BHD Million
616 527 490 592 553
GDP From Public Administration 401.91
BHD Million
406 409 407 399 429
GDP From Services 1789.60
BHD Million
1838 1815 1813 1806 1905
GDP From Transport 224.40
BHD Million
237 226 227 231 238
GDP From Utilities 42.40
BHD Million
45.82 43.22 42.95 43.14 45.37
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5
Employed Persons 650423.00
675000 679000 680000 687000 735000
Population 1.50
Million
1.56 1.56 1.62 1.62 1.69
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70
percent
2.8 3 3.1 3.1 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.10
Index Points
134 132 136 137 141
GDP Deflator 101.26
Index Points
102 102 103 103 104
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
1.6 1.6 1.7 0.17 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 118.80
Index Points
122 118 122 122 126
CPI Transportation 135.70
Index Points
128 122 139 140 130
Food Inflation 2.50
percent
3.4 2.6 1.5 2.9 2.9
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25
Interbank Rate 3.58
percent
3.83 4.08 4.08 4.33 4.58
Money Supply M0 585.30
BHD Million
597 607 624 636 745
Money Supply M2 10629.00
BHD Million
10660 10690 10720 10755 10900
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2
Loan Growth 9.30
percent
9.5 9.7 10.2 10.3 11.2
Loans To Private Sector 4911.80
BHD Million
5200 5370 5500 5700 6750
Reverse Repo Rate 2.00
percent
2.18 2 2.52 2.7 3
Money Supply M3 12402.00
BHD Million
12500 12600 12570 12620 12850
Money Supply M1 3383.00
BHD Million
3305 3350 3400 3430 3550
Foreign Exchange Reserves 818.10
BHD Million
640 725 745 826 850
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2711.40
BHD Million
2470 2580 2610 2680 2910
Banks Balance Sheet 188200.30
USD Million
189500 190500 190700 190800 192500
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -263.20
BHD Million
-300 -300 -200 -200 500
Exports 5781.40
BHD Million
6500 6500 7000 7000 7000
Imports 6044.60
BHD Million
6800 6800 7200 7200 6500
Current Account -522.10
BHD Million
-317 -317 -61.6 -61.6 95.5
Current Account to GDP -4.60
percent
-3.2 -3.2 -0.9 -0.9 1.5
Gold Reserves 4.70
Tonnes
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Terrorism Index 3.67
3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1
Foreign Direct Investment 195.10
BHD Million
230 230 275 275 310
Capital Flows 362.90
BHD Million
150 150 -185 -185 -330
Crude Oil Production 40.00
BBL/D/1K
40 40 40 40 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 90.60
percent
96 96 99 99 102
Government Budget -13.20
percent of GDP
-11 -11 -8.5 -8.5 -6
Government Spending 1833.00
BHD Million
1862 1864 1857 1848 1957
Government Debt 10662.00
BHD Million
10900 11000 11300 11800 13500
Military Expenditure 1384.03
USD Million
1360 1360 1351 1330 1290
Government Budget Value -1505.10
BHD Million
-1490 -1490 -1565 -1565 -1640
Government Revenues 2177.50
BHD Million
2210 2210 2295 2295 2350
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50
BHD Million
3700 3700 3860 3860 3990
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories 197.00
BHD Million
186 186 223 223 253
Car Registrations 428.00
Hundreds
442 442 478 478 508
Internet Speed 7922.65
KBps
8100 8350 8410 8550 9900
IP Addresses 87840.00
IP
86500 86000 85800 85200 84200
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.54 4.54 4.58 4.58 4.52
Competitiveness Rank 44.00
44 44 43 43 45
Ease of Doing Business 66.00
68 68 71 71 72
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
35 35 32 32 33
Corruption Rank 133.00
135 135 138 138 137
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 4798.90
BHD Million
4876 4880 4861 4837 5122
Consumer Credit 3932.80
BHD Million
3955 3978 4000 4020 4500
Gasoline Prices 0.37
USD/Liter
0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.25
Bank Lending Rate 5.29
percent
5.54 5.79 5.79 6.04 6.29
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.46
mm
0.01 7.34 14.92 6.04 6.63
Temperature 18.37
celsius
33.85 22.84 17.7 33.41 26.59