Belarus - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.40 1 1 1 0.5 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 5.00 5.3 5.5 5.1 5 4.8 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 9.5 9 8.5 percent
Balance of Trade -206.40 -310 -620 40 60 -560 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 30.30 28 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 2.08
 2.09 2.1 2.11 2.13 2.19
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90
percent		 3.2 3 2.3 2.6 2.2
GDP 54.44
USD Billion		 70 70 73 73 76
GDP Constant Prices 18390.40
BYN Million		 21241 20969 18813 18869 21966
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4188.00
BYN Million		 5208 7344 4284 4297 7693
GDP per capita 6375.82
USD		 6430 6430 6570 6570 6600
GDP per capita PPP 17167.97
USD		 17250 17250 17900 17900 18500
GDP From Agriculture 807.90
BYN Million		 4532 2480 830 829 2598
GDP From Construction 1653.70
BYN Million		 1559 1691 1221 1697 1771
GDP From Public Administration 995.50
BYN Million		 904 880 1119 1021 921
Gdp From Services 14242.90
BYN Million		 12863 13604 13434 14613 14251
GDP From Transport 1835.70
BYN Million		 1610 1630 1722 1883 1707
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.40
percent		 1 1 1 0.5 1.1
Employed Persons 4332.70
Thousand 		4329 4325 4322 4319 4305
Unemployed Persons 17.20
Thousand 		14.79 13.97 14.14 14.25 14.25
Wages 973.80
BYN/Month		 880 1050 870 1082 1160
Minimum Wages 305.00
BYN/Month		 305 305 326 310 341
Wage Growth 17.70
percent		 16.98 16.58 16.25 16.04 15.81
Population 9.49
Million		 9.49 9.49 9.47 9.47 9.45
Retirement Age Women 56.00
 56 56 56.5 56 57
Retirement Age Men 61.00
 61 61 61.5 61 62
Living Wage Family 650.00
BYN/Month		 650 650 670 650 670
Living Wage Individual 465.00
BYN/Month		 465 465 465 465 465
Wages High Skilled 581.00
BYN/Month		 595 595 595 558 610
Wages Low Skilled 386.00
BYN/Month		 397 397 397 390 410
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.00
percent		 5.3 5.5 5.1 5 4.8
Core Consumer Prices 100.30
Index Points		 100 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices 100.40
Index Points		 107 106 105 105 115
Producer Prices Change 6.30
percent		 6.2 5.8 4.6 4.4 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.16 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.26
Food Inflation 4.30
percent		 4 4.5 1.49 4.45 3.98
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 9.5 9 8.5
Money Supply M0 2699.06
BYN Million		 2770 2794 2798 2798 2797
Money Supply M1 7255.29
BYN Million		 7445 7566 7443 7553 7546
Money Supply M2 14737.24
BYN Million		 15364 15510 15544 15548 15540
Money Supply M3 39071.27
BYN Million		 39339 39723 40072 40386 42411
Foreign Exchange Reserves 7246.40
USD Million		 7307 7363 7368 7368 7368
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00
percent		 8 8 7.5 7 6.5
Lending Rate 11.50
percent		 11.5 11.5 11 10.5 10
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent		 4 4 4 4 4
Banks Balance Sheet 64121444.00
BYN Thousand		 62980983 62761439 62640617 62574125 62492954
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -206.40
USD Million		 -310 -620 40 60 -560
Exports 2746.80
USD Million		 2810 3120 3240 3340 4050
Imports 2953.20
USD Million		 3120 3740 3200 3280 4610
Current Account 458.50
USD Million		 -435 -732 -1037 -716 -742
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent		 -3.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7
External Debt 39259.20
USD Million		 39802 39906 40014 40125 40991
Capital Flows 388.10
USD Million		 -193 -326 -689 -591 -474
Gold Reserves 46.50
Tonnes		 47.3 47.75 47.92 48.03 50.09
Remittances 119.10
USD Million		 119 122 121 122 122
Foreign Direct Investment 1410.90
USD Million		 236 424 874 580 482
Crude Oil Production 31.00
BBL/D/1K		 31.05 31.09 31.05 31.08 31.07
Terrorism Index 0.04
 0.15 0 0 0 0.97
Tourist Arrivals 282694.00
 243125 230300 231500 232700 175900
Weapons Sales 23.00
USD Million		 115 134 123 112 146
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 30.30
percent		 28 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.5
Government Budget 2.90
percent of GDP		 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.44 1.6
Government Budget Value 670029.00
BYN Thousand		 8732 232108 91943 255348 429709
Government Spending 2696.20
BYN Million		 2824 2770 2758 2766 2902
Government Revenues 3501666.00
BYN Thousand		 2629345 2805907 2745875 2906595 3080825
Government Debt 42148701.00
BYN Thousand		 42029196 42003399 41996310 41998481 41998462
Fiscal Expenditure 2831637.00
BYN Thousand		 2620613 2669335 2653933 2651248 2651116
Government Spending To GDP 28.80
percent of GDP		 32.69 33.4 34.29 35.19 42.55
Military Expenditure 563.50
USD Million		 570 564 566 568 556
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 7.10
percent		 7.2 7.1 6.3 6.2 4.5
Industrial Production Mom 5.70
percent		 -1.69 0.51 0.46 0.57 0.56
Manufacturing Production 7.40
percent		 7.99 7.85 7.8 7.77 7.76
Changes in Inventories 51.80
BYN Million		 227 237 235 236 236
Internet Speed 9757.12
KBps		 10628 10823 10835 10976 11393
IP Addresses 1236913.00
IP		 1238583 1241055 1245125 1246837 1258334
Leading Economic Index 3.70
percent		 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.6
Ease of Doing Business 38.00
 46 48 47 46 61
Corruption Index 44.00
Points		 45 46 46 46 41
Corruption Rank 68.00
 63 65 64 64 70
Mining Production 3.00
percent		 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.7
Steel Production 225.00
Thousand Tonnes		 214 203 201 202 202
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 10423.00
BYN Million		 11338 11053 10663 10694 11578
Consumer Credit 3733.70
BYN Million		 3910 4148 4343 4503 5142
Retail Sales Mom 1.20
percent		 1.28 0.95 1.05 1.04 1.02
Retail Sales Yoy 7.70
percent		 7.86 7.29 7.05 6.96 6.91
Gasoline Prices 0.70
USD/Liter		 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.6 0.47
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00
percent		 34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 1.70
celsius		 15.73 0.65 -4.66 10.15 5.98
Precipitation 41.48
mm		 70.61 45.39 34.96 52.65 53.26