Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Currency 5.34 5.39 5.45 5.5 5.56 5.68
Stock Market (points) 110662.87 106876 103624 100472 97419 91312
Government Bond 10Y (%) 7.57 7.77 7.87 7.97 8.08 8.29

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.70 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -11.40 -5.5 0.6 5 3.5 3.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 14.60 14.6 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.2
Inflation Rate (%) 3.92 3 3.3 3.1 3 3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.86 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 2.00 2 2 2.25 2.5 2.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 25 25 25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 5472.59 6600 5900 6200 5300 4200
Current Account (USD Million) 1473.00 3800 2500 1950 1500 850
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.70 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 75.79 89 88 88 88 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -12 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5
Business Confidence (points) 62.90 62.7 63 63.3 63 62.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 66.70 66.5 65 63 60 58
Services PMI (points) 52.30 50.8 51.5 51.1 51.3 51.3
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.80 43 44 45 47 49
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 1
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 34 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.70 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -11.40 -5.5 0.6 5 3.5 3.2
GDP (USD Billion) 1839.76 1690 1760 1760 1760 1760
GDP Constant Prices (BRL Million) 263699.75 285493 293664 276885 272929 294628
Gross National Product (BRL Million) 1627491.87 1739370 1769268 1708866 1684454 1795030
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (BRL Million) 247451.72 265144 286770 259824 256113 273629
GDP per capita (USD) 11121.74 10400 11100 11100 11100 11100
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 14651.60 13700 14400 14400 14400 14400
GDP From Agriculture (BRL Million) 23183.89 12998 25288 24343 23995 13414
GDP From Construction (BRL Million) 11967.83 12992 12902 12566 12387 13408
GDP From Manufacturing (BRL Million) 24072.83 28602 27853 25276 24915 29518
GDP From Mining (BRL Million) 2520.42 2692 2498 2646 2609 2778
GDP From Public Administration (BRL Million) 36738.11 37676 39702 38575 38024 38882
GDP From Services (BRL Million) 159726.33 175794 176843 167713 165317 181419
GDP From Transport (BRL Million) 6538.53 8187 8027 6865 6767 8449
GDP From Utilities (BRL Million) 6410.08 6402 6958 6731 6634 6607

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 14.60 14.6 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.2
Employed Persons (Million ) 82.46 82.2 83 84 85 87
Unemployed Persons (Million ) 14.90 13.1 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 55.10 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.1 58.8
Labour Costs (points) 82.26 115 115 115 115 115
Wages (BRL/Month) 2535.00 2470 2460 2440 2470 2550
Minimum Wages (BRL/Month) 1045.00 1045 1120 1120 1120 1120
Population (Million) 210.15 212 212 212 212 214
Retirement Age Women 62.00 60 62 60 62 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Productivity (points) 82.26 89 101 105 106 109
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand ) 394.99 -310 40 50 70 80
Wages In Manufacturing (BRL/Month) 2599.00 2520 2500 2480 2500 2500
Employment Rate (%) 47.10 47.7 48.1 48.6 49 49.5

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 3.92 3 3.3 3.1 3 3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.86 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 5438.12 5480 5525 5491 5554 5644
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.88 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7
Producer Prices (points) 123.37 946 980 980 1012 1087
Export Prices (points) 121.76 114 116 117 117 118
Import Prices (points) 104.64 110 110 110 111 111
Food Inflation (%) 13.88 6 5.8 5.6 5.3 5
Producer Prices Change (%) 26.00 18.5 16 15 13.5 12
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 9280.02 9405 9437 9389 9524 9687
CPI Transportation (points) 4995.67 5212 5204 4975 5085 5368

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Interest Rate (%) 2.00 2 2 2.25 2.5 2.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 25 25 25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 354546.00 358000 359000 363000 365000 368000
Banks Balance Sheet (BRL Million) 7807075.16 7850000 7920000 7890000 7760000 7500000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.24 9.51 1.33 1.33 1.58 9.76
Interbank Rate (%) 2.39 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8
Loan Growth (%) 1.40 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet (BRL Thousand) 4157645815.00 4080000000 4090000000 4070000000 4060000000 4020000000

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 5472.59 6600 5900 6200 5300 4200
Current Account (USD Million) 1473.00 3800 2500 1950 1500 850
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.70 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3
Imports (USD Million) 12382.81 12700 13900 14300 15000 15800
Exports (USD Million) 17855.40 19300 19800 20500 20300 20000
External Debt (USD Million) 620869.79 640000 643000 646000 650000 653000
Terms of Trade (points) 116.36 109 104 105 106 109
Capital Flows (USD Million) 1478.90 700 300 -500 -600 -750
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 1792.62 1500 2000 2500 2850 3500
Remittances (USD Million) 293.20 285 287 289 290 290
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 67.36 67.5 67.6 67.6 67.6 67.6
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3087.00 3200 3200 3200 3200 3500
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 6353.00 2000 3800 3800 3800 3800
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 10.00 70 70 70 70 70

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 75.79 89 88 88 88 85
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -12 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5
Government Budget Value (BRL Million) -103420.00 -150000 -155000 -160000 -157000 -155000
Government Spending (BRL Million) 136676.52 195548 113563 272869 189160 201806
Government Revenues (BRL Million) 153900.00 115000 100000 107000 111000 120000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 30769.00 31000 29500 29500 29500 29500
Government Debt (BRL Million) 6533712.36 6390000 6310000 6250000 6150000 5995350

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 34 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate (%) 17.00 17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate (%) 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Business Confidence (points) 62.90 62.7 63 63.3 63 62.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 66.70 66.5 65 63 60 58
Services PMI (points) 52.30 50.8 51.5 51.1 51.3 51.3
Composite PMI (points) 55.90 52 51.5 51 51.5 52.3
Industrial Production (%) 3.40 1.5 1.8 8 2.5 2.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) 2.60 1.5 0.9 1 0.8 1.1
Manufacturing Production (%) -2.70 -1.3 1.5 6 3.3 2.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 79.40 76 76.5 76.8 77.1 77.3
Total Vehicle Sales 168464.00 152000 158000 161000 169000 176000
Car Production (Units) 236468.00 213000 215000 220000 227000 230000
Car Registrations (Thousand) 215.00 200 220 240 245 250
Leading Economic Index (%) 1.29 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8
Small Business Sentiment 60.30 53 52 51.3 51.7 52
Mining Production (%) -2.00 2 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.80 43 44 45 47 49
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 7.30 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.9
Consumer Spending (BRL Million) 1002720.00 1170975 1169178 1052856 1037815 1208446
Consumer Credit (BRL Million) 2158193.00 1906872 2062484 2144327 2195479 1967892
Private Sector Credit (BRL Million) 3645426.00 3490000 3510000 3500000 3480000 3470000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 38.87 54.15 39.87 39.87 40.12 54.4
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 30.40 30.9 40 40.3 40.5 40.5
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.76 1.01 0.66 0.63 0.59 0.95

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Housing Index (points) 131.40 132 132 132 132 132


This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.