Brazil - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 12.30 12.2 12 11.9 11.7 12.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.19 4.1 4 4 4.2 4.3 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade 3774.99 4500 4500 7000 5900 3000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 74.04 76 76 80 80 83 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 4.05
4.18 4.23 4.28 4.33 4.53
Stock Market 79444.29
points
76210 74971 73747 72546 67932
Government Bond 10Y 11.70
percent
12.21 12.38 12.55 12.73 13.46
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent
0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.5 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.6
GDP 2055.51
USD Billion
2100 2100 2200 2200 2350
GDP Constant Prices 292743.31
BRL Million
297862 296508 293776 299184 311519
Gross National Product 1672449.67
BRL Million
1621295 1696843 1644516 1709244 1782744
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 271381.65
BRL Million
265904 272314 267629 277352 286100
GDP per capita 10888.98
USD
11200 11200 10000 10000 11730
GDP per capita PPP 14103.45
USD
14250 14250 14500 14500 16500
GDP From Agriculture 22302.59
BRL Million
18472 13370 24747 22793 14047
GDP From Construction 14810.83
BRL Million
15630 15579 15277 15137 16368
GDP From Manufacturing 29063.81
BRL Million
31727 30417 28387 29703 31957
GDP From Mining 2544.41
BRL Million
2664 2610 2469 2600 2742
GDP From Public Administration 39970.23
BRL Million
40277 40348 40043 40850 42391
GDP From Services 176003.35
BRL Million
178980 182020 175225 179875 191235
GDP From Transport 8123.63
BRL Million
8490 8476 8088 8302 8906
GDP From Utilities 6706.67
BRL Million
6484 6645 6821 6854 6982
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.30
percent
12.2 12 11.9 11.7 12.1
Employed Persons 91.66
Million
91.99 91 92.05 92.01 92
Unemployed Persons 12.87
Million
12.96 12.4 12.3 12.4 12
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40
percent
61.41 62 61.47 61.48 62.8
Labour Costs 105.04
Index Points
111 125 109 109 139
Wages 2205.00
BRL/Month
2220 2250 2240 2220 2370
Minimum Wages 954.00
BRL/Month
954 954 1050 1050 1190
Population 207.66
Million
209 209 210 210 212
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 2380.00
BRL/Month
2400 2400 2450 2450 2550
Living Wage Individual 1450.00
BRL/Month
1479 1479 1500 1500 1550
Non Farm Payrolls 100.43
Thousand
34 -200 45 -0.4 30
Productivity 105.04
Index Points
111 145 109 109 162
Wages High Skilled 4280.00
BRL/Month
4430 4430 4500 4500 4600
Wages In Manufacturing 2229.00
BRL/Month
2210 2250 2280 2270 2340
Wages Low Skilled 1310.00
BRL/Month
1350 1350 1400 1400 1450
Employment Rate 53.90
percent
54.05 54.9 54.03 54.02 56
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.19
percent
4.1 4 4 4.2 4.3
Inflation Rate Mom -0.09
percent
0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 5056.56
Index Points
5060 5113 5149 5256 5557
Core Inflation Rate 3.60
percent
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7
GDP Deflator 3.80
percent
4.78 3.46 4.06 4.66 3.99
Producer Prices 753.28
Index Points
774 805 796 816 921
Export Prices 135.33
Index Points
135 133 134 134 135
Import Prices 121.05
Index Points
121 121 122 122 124
Food Inflation 2.20
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6
Producer Prices Change 11.20
percent
14 16 13 10 6
CPI Housing Utilities 8819.44
Index Points
8547 8728 8689 9011 9485
CPI Transportation 4839.11
Index Points
4790 4893 4971 5080 5318
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 25.00
percent
25.98 45 25.75 25.69 45
Money Supply M0 277677.29
BRL Million
275253 274617 274749 274833 274840
Money Supply M1 361191.40
BRL Million
333293 333087 333092 333087 333086
Money Supply M2 2589685.69
BRL Million
2629329 2684225 2712582 2738790 2780496
Money Supply M3 5856775.59
BRL Million
5790000 5643935 5537797 5446605 5066381
Foreign Exchange Reserves 381393.00
USD Million
382166 382905 383502 383784 549000
Banks Balance Sheet 6156144.10
BRL Million
6070058 6000000 6167494 6214545 6100000
Loans to Private Sector 674196.00
BRL Million
665656 653432 641912 631072 552335
Deposit Interest Rate 8.51
percent
8.51 8.51 8.76 8.76 8.76
Loan Growth -0.20
percent
0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3409301938.00
BRL Thousand
3467334718 3541436687 3613863473 3685959713 4384695148
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 3774.99
USD Million
4500 4500 7000 5900 3000
Exports 22552.00
USD Million
22500 19500 24000 23900 25000
Imports 18777.00
USD Million
18000 15000 17000 18000 22000
Current Account -4433.00
USD Million
500 -4200 -4100 550 -4400
Current Account to GDP -0.48
percent
-0.6 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5
External Debt 660146.01
USD Million
656963 664213 654982 658619 734000
Terms of Trade 111.80
Index Points
112 110 110 110 109
Capital Flows -3098.00
USD Million
-870 -690 -737 -722 1030
Foreign Direct Investment 3897.50
USD Million
5100 4000 3700 4400 4500
Remittances 210.70
USD Million
201 210 210 210 209
Gold Reserves 67.30
Tonnes
67.29 67.29 67.29 67.29 67.29
Crude Oil Production 2607.00
BBL/D/1K
2601 2602 2602 2602 2602
Terrorism Index 1.57
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4
Weapons Sales 45.00
USD Million
65 65 75 75 70
Tourist Arrivals 6589.00
Thousand
6700 6700 6750 6650 6700
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.04
percent
76 76 80 80 83
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-8.2 -8.2 -8.4 -8.4 -7.8
Government Budget Value -29162.00
BRL Million
-50000 -55000 -52000 -51500 -55000
Government Spending 113947.62
BRL Million
113408 150212 116044 107591 157817
Government Revenues 109751.00
BRL Million
130000 140000 127000 129000 130000
Military Expenditure 25751.34
USD Million
26474 26474 21968 21968 22000
Government Debt 5186540.04
BRL Million
5269194 5389470 5507702 5624336 6707436
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 52.80
Index Points
53 53 54 54 55
Services PMI 46.80
Index Points
47 50.5 50.4 50.6 50.4
Manufacturing PMI 51.10
50.9 51.4 51.4 51.6 53
Composite Pmi 47.80
Index
50.2 50.4 50.6 50.3 51
Industrial Production 4.00
percent
2.8 2.4 3.3 3 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent
1.3 2 -1.2 0.7 1.3
Manufacturing Production 4.00
percent
2.3 3.6 1.2 3 1.6
Capacity Utilization 77.30
percent
76.8 79 76.83 76.83 79
Changes in Inventories 8925.74
BRL Million
12918 30000 25089 7288 21000
Total Vehicle Sales 203926.00
185915 185376 185652 186326 176000
Car Production 291425.00
Units
280000 225000 250000 245000 265000
Car Registrations 249.00
Thousand
0.02 255 215 210 240
Leading Economic Index 0.57
percent
0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4
Small Business Sentiment 50.80
50.51 51 51.4 51.46 51
Internet Speed 6819.06
KBps
9947 10325 10729 11007 12317
IP Addresses 26855780.00
IP
26704333 26721060 26725164 26730033 26743459
Mining Production 3.80
percent
1.1 1.4 -1.3 1.6 1.2
Steel Production 3022.00
Thousand Tonnes
2960 2946 2932 2931 2933
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.14 4.14 4.2 4.2 4.2
Competitiveness Rank 80.00
80 80 81 81 82
Ease of Doing Business 125.00
125 125 126 126 124
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
34 34 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 96.00
94 94 98 98 95
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.70
Index Points
104 103 102 103 103
Retail Sales MoM -0.50
percent
0.1 0.5 0.6 0.17 1
Retail Sales YoY -1.00
percent
2.4 3.8 2.43 3.3 2.1
Consumer Spending 1063420.89
BRL Million
1056694 1106903 1064098 1086816 1162939
Consumer Credit 1702729.00
BRL Million
1718510 1742628 1766360 1789764 2008334
Private Sector Credit 2904230.00
BRL Million
2923476 3300000 2950482 2961193 3690000
Bank Lending Rate 52.03
percent
52.03 52.03 52.28 52.28 52.28
Households Debt To Gdp 24.70
Percent
24.59 24.65 24.62 24.62 24.63
Gasoline Prices 1.10
USD/Liter
1.12 1.06 1 0.94 0.75
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 129.10
Index Points
129 129 129 129 127
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50
percent
27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 39.80
percent
39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80
percent
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 24.74
celsius
24.29 25.42 25.32 25.51 25.3