This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.90 11.6 11.4 11.3 11 11.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.56 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade 6121.36 4500 7000 5900 4900 3000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 74.04 78 80 80 80 82 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 3.74
4.07 4.12 4.17 4.22 4.43
Stock Market 88515.27
points
76906 75608 74332 73073 68257
Government Bond 10Y 10.15
percent
11.81 11.98 12.16 12.33 13.08
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent
0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.4 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3
GDP 2055.51
USD Billion
2100 2200 2200 2200 2350
GDP Constant Prices 292743.31
BRL Million
295925 293776 299184 299476 309997
Gross National Product 1672449.67
BRL Million
1693503 1644516 1709244 1710916 1774032
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 271381.65
BRL Million
271778 267629 277352 277623 284702
GDP per capita 10888.98
USD
11200 11500 11500 11500 11730
GDP per capita PPP 14103.45
USD
14250 14500 14500 14500 16500
GDP From Agriculture 22302.59
BRL Million
13344 24747 22793 22816 13979
GDP From Construction 14810.83
BRL Million
15549 15277 15137 15151 16288
GDP From Manufacturing 29063.81
BRL Million
30358 28387 29703 29732 31801
GDP From Mining 2544.41
BRL Million
2605 2469 2600 2603 2729
GDP From Public Administration 39970.23
BRL Million
40269 40043 40850 40890 42183
GDP From Services 176003.35
BRL Million
181662 175225 179875 180051 190300
GDP From Transport 8123.63
BRL Million
8460 8088 8302 8310 8862
GDP From Utilities 6706.67
BRL Million
6632 6821 6854 6861 6948
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.90
percent
11.6 11.4 11.3 11 11.1
Employed Persons 92.62
Million
91 93.24 93.34 93.34 92
Unemployed Persons 12.49
Million
12.4 12.3 12.3 12.25 12
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70
percent
62 61.68 61.64 61.64 62.8
Labour Costs 99.29
Index Points
95 90 95 100 115
Wages 2222.00
BRL/Month
2250 2240 2220 2250 2370
Minimum Wages 954.00
BRL/Month
954 1050 1050 1050 1190
Population 207.66
Million
209 210 210 210 212
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 2360.00
BRL/Month
2400 2450 2450 2450 2550
Living Wage Individual 1390.00
BRL/Month
1479 1500 1500 1500 1550
Non Farm Payrolls 137.30
Thousand
-200 45 -0.4 30 30
Productivity 99.29
Index Points
95 90 95 100 115
Wages High Skilled 4730.00
BRL/Month
4430 4500 4500 4500 4600
Wages In Manufacturing 2257.00
BRL/Month
2250 2280 2270 2250 2340
Wages Low Skilled 1440.00
BRL/Month
1350 1400 1400 1400 1450
Employment Rate 54.40
percent
54.9 54.6 54.64 54.63 56
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.56
percent
4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.45
percent
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 5103.69
Index Points
5133 5169 5271 5315 5589
Core Inflation Rate 3.55
percent
3.4 3.5 3.5 3.45 3.7
GDP Deflator 3.80
percent
3.46 4.06 4.66 5.25 3.99
Producer Prices 773.77
Index Points
805 817 876 911 1083
Export Prices 129.58
Index Points
133 134 134 134 135
Import Prices 121.60
Index Points
121 122 122 122 124
Food Inflation 3.33
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
Producer Prices Change 13.70
percent
16 16 18 18 15
CPI Housing Utilities 8864.46
Index Points
8761 8722 9037 9259 9540
CPI Transportation 4966.16
Index Points
4912 4990 5094 5147 5349
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 25.00
percent
45 25.21 25.19 25.2 45
Money Supply M0 286975.50
BRL Million
282089 281516 281608 281619 281598
Money Supply M1 359886.83
BRL Million
357829 356708 356953 356938 356934
Money Supply M2 2743366.37
BRL Million
2834161 2899533 2958129 3014793 3508547
Money Supply M3 6085368.31
BRL Million
6208427 6325420 6440876 6555900 7575468
Foreign Exchange Reserves 380290.00
USD Million
380726 380680 380673 380680 549000
Banks Balance Sheet 6156144.10
BRL Million
6000000 6167494 6214545 6260918 6100000
Loans to Private Sector 666439.00
BRL Million
653308 641315 630101 619549 548470
Deposit Interest Rate 8.51
percent
8.51 8.76 8.76 8.76 8.76
Loan Growth 0.40
percent
0.6 0.4 0.5 0.34 0.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3470929272.00
BRL Thousand
3554539969 3627141790 3700053851 3772544203 4407836918
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 6121.36
USD Million
4500 7000 5900 4900 3000
Exports 22225.97
USD Million
19500 24000 23900 23000 25000
Imports 16104.61
USD Million
15000 17000 18000 18100 22000
Current Account 31.80
USD Million
-4200 -4100 550 -3200 -4400
Current Account to GDP -0.48
percent
-1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5
External Debt 652274.64
USD Million
666934 647249 658848 655824 734000
Terms of Trade 106.56
Index Points
110 110 110 110 109
Capital Flows 677.40
USD Million
81.59 151 181 184 1030
Foreign Direct Investment 7829.20
USD Million
4000 3700 4400 6315 4500
Remittances 207.00
USD Million
210 210 209 195 215
Gold Reserves 67.30
Tonnes
67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3
Crude Oil Production 2575.00
BBL/D/1K
2582 2920 2900 2900 3000
Terrorism Index 1.57
1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
Weapons Sales 45.00
USD Million
65 75 75 75 70
Tourist Arrivals 6589.00
Thousand
6700 6750 6650 6750 6700
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.04
percent
78 80 80 80 82
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-8.4 -7.9 -7.9 -7.9 -7.6
Government Budget Value -39173.00
BRL Million
-55000 -52000 -51500 -54000 -55000
Government Spending 119639.00
BRL Million
149917 116044 107591 114773 157046
Government Revenues 110660.00
BRL Million
140000 127000 129000 124000 130000
Military Expenditure 25751.34
USD Million
26474 21968 21968 21968 22000
Government Debt 5246734.28
BRL Million
5389470 5472996 5582394 5690262 6595981
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 53.70
Index Points
53 54 54 54.5 55
Services PMI 50.50
Index Points
50.5 50.4 50.6 50.3 50.4
Manufacturing PMI 51.10
51.4 51.4 51.6 51.8 50
Composite Pmi 50.50
Index
50.4 50.6 50.3 50.4 51
Industrial Production -2.00
percent
2.4 3.3 3 1.4 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -1.80
percent
2 -1.2 0.7 0.4 1.3
Manufacturing Production -2.30
percent
3.6 1.2 3 2.4 1.6
Capacity Utilization 77.80
percent
79 78.14 78.16 78.16 79
Changes in Inventories 8925.74
BRL Million
30000 25089 7288 13880 21000
Total Vehicle Sales 173193.00
179045 179917 180500 180200 176000
Car Production 263262.00
Units
225000 250000 245000 260000 265000
Car Registrations 255.00
Thousand
255 215 210 218 240
Leading Economic Index -0.09
percent
0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Small Business Sentiment 52.10
51 51.85 51.9 51.97 51
Internet Speed 6819.06
KBps
10325 10729 11007 11285 12317
IP Addresses 26855780.00
IP
26721060 26725164 26730033 26735338 26743459
Mining Production 0.30
percent
1.4 -1.3 1.6 1.8 1.2
Steel Production 3032.00
Thousand Tonnes
3017 3008 3007 3008 3008
Competitiveness Index 59.51
Points
60.01 60.01 60.01 60.01 62.51
Competitiveness Rank 72.00
72 72 72 72 72
Ease of Doing Business 109.00
125 126 126 126 124
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
37 37 37 37 37
Corruption Rank 96.00
96 96 96 96 96
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 110.60
Index Points
110 112 112 113 115
Retail Sales MoM -1.30
percent
0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1
Retail Sales YoY 0.10
percent
3.8 1.04 3.3 1.08 2.1
Consumer Spending 1063420.89
BRL Million
1104724 1064098 1086816 1087880 1157256
Consumer Credit 1728103.00
BRL Million
1752339 1776607 1800739 1824635 2027609
Private Sector Credit 2946966.00
BRL Million
3300000 3005410 3027948 3046688 3690000
Bank Lending Rate 52.17
percent
52.17 52.42 52.42 52.42 52.42
Households Debt To GDP 24.60
percent of GDP
24.52 24.49 24.49 24.5 24.49
Gasoline Prices 1.27
USD/Liter
1.25 1.23 1.21 1.18 1.1
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 129.00
Index Points
129 129 129 129 127
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50
percent
27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 39.80
percent
39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80
percent
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 24.74
celsius
25.42 25.32 25.51 25.51 25.3



Brazil - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook