Industrial production in Brazil rose 0.2 percent month-over-month in December 2018, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. It was the first gain in industrial output since June, as production increased for food (1.5 percent); extractive industries (1.3 percent), beverages (2.9 percent), miscellaneous products (6.9 percent) and coke, petroleum products & biofuels (0.6 percent). Meanwhile, output declined for automotive vehicles & trailers (-3.1 percent); machinery & equipment (-2.5 percent); other chemicals (-1.3 percent); metallurgy (-1.3 percent); pulp & paper products (-1.8 percent); rubber & plastic (-1.6 percent); tobacco products (-11.6 percent) and furniture (-4.7 percent). Year-on-year, industrial production fell 3.6 percent, after declining 1.0 percent in the prior month and compared with market consensus of a 4.2 percent decrease. Considering full 2018, industrial output went up 1.1 percent. Industrial Production Mom in Brazil averaged 0.14 percent from 1985 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25.10 percent in May of 1990 and a record low of -24.40 percent in April of 1990.
Industrial Production Mom in Brazil is expected to be -1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Brazil to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.