The IBC-Br index of economic activity in Brazil advanced 0.3 percent month-over-month in June 2019, compared to an upwardly revised 1.1 percent increase in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Still, The index fell 0.13 percent in the three months to June, indicating that the economy may have slipped into recession following the index’s fall of 0.68% in the first quarter. Year-on-year, economic activity decreased a non-seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent, after an upwardly revised 4.9 percent rise in the previous month. Leading Economic Index in Brazil averaged 0.17 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.22 percent in June of 2018 and a record low of -3.36 percent in May of 2018.
Leading Economic Index in Brazil is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Brazil to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil IBC-Br Economic Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.70 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.