Retail sales in Brazil edged up 0.1 percent from the previous month in June 2019, after being unchanged in May and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. An increase in sales of textiles, clothing & footwear (1.5 percent vs 1.8 percent) and pharmaceutical & cosmetics articles (0.3 percent vs 1 percent) was partially offset by declines in sales of fuels & lubricants (-1.4 percent vs -0.8 percent), furniture & appliances (-1 percent vs -0.4 percent), books, newspapers, magazines & stationery (-0.8 percent vs 0.4 percent), and office equipment, computer & communication (-2.4 percent vs 1.1 percent). Meanwhile, sales at hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages & tobacco were flat, after a 1.7 percent advance in May. On a yearly basis, retail trade dropped 0.3 percent in June, following a 1 percent growth in May. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.28 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.90 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.70 percent in January of 2016.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.