Brunei's economy contracted 0.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, following a 1.0 percent growth in the previous period. Gross capital formation growth slowed (1.0 percent vs 45.4 percent in Q4) while both household consumption (4.9 percent vs 6.7 percent) and government spending (1.0 percent vs 7.2 percent) expanded at a softer pace. Regarding net foreign demand, exports fell 3.2 percent (from 15.1 percent in Q4) while imports advanced 20.0 percent (from 45.7 percent in Q4). On the production side, output declined in agricultural, forestry & fishing (-3.3 percent vs 0.4 percent), particularly vegetables, fruits & other agriculture (-17.4 percent vs 0.5 percent) while the industry sector shrank 2.3 percent, the same pace as in the previous quarter. Additionally, the services sector production advanced at a softer pace (2.8 percent vs 6.4 percent). On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 1.1 percent, following a 6.0 percent growth in the last quarter of 2018. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei averaged 0.16 percent from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in the second quarter of 2010 and a record low of -8.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei is expected to be 1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei to stand at 1.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brunei GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.