Bulgaria recorded a trade surplus of BGN 104.5 million in June 2019 compared to a BGN 281.5 million gap a year earlier. This was the largest trade surplus since September 2017, as imports slipped 13.6 percent to BGN 4,419.9 million, dragged down by lower purchases from non-EU countries (-30.6 percent) and the EU (-3.5 percent). Meanwhile, exports decreased at a softer 6.4 percent to BGN 4,524.4 million, as sales to the EU and non-EU countries fell 3.6 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively. In the first six months of the year, the country's trade gap narrowed to BGN 579.2 million from BGN 2,201.5 million, as shipments surged 6.3 percent and imports grew only 0.7 percent. Balance of Trade in Bulgaria averaged -485.46 BGN Million from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 411.70 BGN Million in July of 2017 and a record low of -1862.90 BGN Million in October of 2008.
Balance of Trade in Bulgaria is expected to be -40.00 BGN Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Bulgaria to stand at -340.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Bulgaria Balance of Trade is projected to trend around -1200.00 BGN Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.