Bulgaria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.70 7.2 7 7 6 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.50 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0.25 0.5 0.5 1 percent
Balance of Trade -379.30 -90 -780 -590 0 -500 BGN Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.60 21.5 21.5 20.9 20.9 20 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.66
1.67 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.94
Stock Market 627.08
points
626 621 616 611 593
Government Bond 10Y 1.00
percent
1.06 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.56
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40
percent
3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7
GDP 56.83
USD Billion
59 59 62 62 69
GDP Constant Prices 22043.59
BGN Million
24006 25015 18984 22837 26926
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4754.45
BGN Million
4477 5015 3359 4926 5398
GDP per capita 8311.93
USD
8320 8320 8450 8450 8560
GDP per capita PPP 18563.31
USD
18900 18900 19200 19200 20300
GDP From Agriculture 745.03
BGN Million
1733 738 421 772 794
GDP From Construction 1009.51
BGN Million
1165 835 840 1046 899
GDP From Manufacturing 5496.65
BGN Million
5579 5624 4861 5695 6054
GDP From Public Administration 3216.40
BGN Million
2792 3456 3358 3332 3720
GDP From Services 4893.61
BGN Million
5283 5722 3615 5070 6159
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.70
percent
7.2 7 7 6 6.5
Employed Persons 3157.10
Thousand
3206 3154 3094 3144 3143
Unemployed Persons 185.83
Thousand
184 188 190 190 189
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.00
percent
2.67 2.6 2.49 2.38 1.82
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.10
percent
11.57 11.26 10.97 11.03 10.43
Labour Costs 141.89
Index Points
133 133 160 148 141
Job Vacancies 20801.00
20625 20113 23229 21433 21448
Wages 1119.00
BGN/Month
1140 1230 1200 1091 1400
Minimum Wages 260.76
EUR/Month
261 261 295 295 340
Population 7.05
Million
7.05 7.05 7 7.02 6.97
Retirement Age Women 61.17
61.17 61.17 61.33 61 61.5
Retirement Age Men 64.08
64.08 64.08 64.17 64 64.25
Wages High Skilled 1260.00
BGN/Month
1360 1360 1360 997 1400
Wages In Manufacturing 1007.00
BGN/Month
990 1010 1030 1086 1150
Wages Low Skilled 657.00
BGN/Month
680 680 680 559 700
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.50
percent
56.22 55.46 54.64 55.34 55.57
Living Wage Family 1060.00
BGN/Month
1060 1060 1113 1060 1060
Living Wage Individual 675.00
BGN/Month
696 696 696 696 695
Part Time Employment 57.50
Thousand
60.28 59.67 58.88 57.9 58.57
Productivity 115.30
Index Points
116 116 116 116 116
Full Time Employment 3020.70
Thousand
3074 3028 2973 3021 3029
Employment Change -0.20
percent
0.11 0.23 0.37 0.2 0.28
Employment Rate 52.50
percent
53.33 52.5 51.72 52.57 52.74
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.50
percent
2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.75
Index Points
102 104 104 105 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 6841.83
Index Points
6775 6894 6906 6954 7201
Core Consumer Prices 102.41
Index Points
99.69 101 101 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6
Producer Prices 106.00
Index Points
108 110 111 114 122
Export Prices 100.60
Index Points
99.68 100 99.48 99.55 99.65
Import Prices 99.20
Index Points
98.51 98.44 98.92 99.74 102
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent
5 6.2 6.5 6.6 4
CPI Housing Utilities 15225.78
Index Points
14956 15230 15316 15337 15907
CPI Transportation 8033.92
Index Points
7620 7815 7743 8119 8163
Food Inflation 2.90
percent
2.2 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0.25 0.5 0.5 1
Interbank Rate -0.23
percent
-0.23 0.02 0.27 0.27 0.77
Money Supply M0 14910.40
BGN Million
15055 15300 15419 15468 15523
Money Supply M1 50881.00
BGN Million
51934 53405 54854 56289 69949
Money Supply M2 90377.10
BGN Million
91052 92941 94723 96495 112929
Money Supply M3 90443.00
BGN Million
91118 93005 94785 96555 112983
Foreign Exchange Reserves 46860.86
BGN Million
47231 47415 47459 47462 47465
Deposit Interest Rate 0.05
percent
0.05 0.3 0.55 0.55 1.05
Loans To Private Sector 32357285.00
BGN Thousand
32541837 32821129 33058881 33263904 34257659
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7602.80
BGN Million
7598 7594 7588 7593 7592
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -379.30
BGN Million
-90 -780 -590 0 -500
Exports 4872.70
BGN Million
4820 4620 5150 5410 5650
Imports 5252.00
BGN Million
4910 5400 5740 5410 6150
Current Account 947.80
EUR Million
380 -350 -50 300 -100
Current Account to GDP 4.50
percent
3.2 3.2 3 3 2.9
External Debt 33285.10
EUR Million
33366 33425 33474 33517 33736
Capital Flows 978.30
EUR Million
229 237 233 234 234
Remittances 103.10
EUR Million
94.94 95.86 99.72 99.73 98.69
Tourist Arrivals 2152833.00
1254000 575000 1287900 1421400 587000
Gold Reserves 40.40
Tonnes
40.42 40.43 40.45 40.46 40.57
Terrorism Index 1.18
0.66 0.64 0.55 0.46 1
Weapons Sales 61.00
USD Million
24.99 23.28 23.8 24.31 28.81
Foreign Direct Investment -56.80
EUR Million
23.71 42 37.79 38.79 38.64
Crude Oil Production 1.00
BBL/D/1K
1 1 1 1 1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.60
percent
21.5 21.5 20.9 20.9 20
Government Budget 0.90
percent of GDP
-0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1
Government Budget Value 307.85
BGN Million
159 210 216 215 215
Government Spending to GDP 35.20
percent
36.79 37.49 38.01 38.54 37.08
Government Debt 12080.50
EUR Million
12013 11938 11868 11805 11434
Military Expenditure 843.41
USD Million
942 984 1028 1071 1505
Government Revenues 3094.83
BGN Million
2878 2923 2934 2933 2933
Government Spending 1778.87
BGN Million
1609 2133 1604 1843 2296
Asylum Applications 145.00
persons
196 176 170 175 175
Fiscal Expenditure 2772.96
BGN Million
2719 2718 2718 2718 2718
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 27.70
Index Points
28.8 31 27 25 22
Industrial Production 1.00
percent
3.1 1.5 0.13 0.14 1.6
Industrial Production Mom -1.20
percent
0.01 0.6 0.22 0.23 0.4
Manufacturing Production 3.80
percent
0.5 0.69 0.72 0.7 0.7
Capacity Utilization 77.10
percent
76.22 76.15 76.14 76.15 76.16
Changes in Inventories 500.69
BGN Million
385 489 397 448 434
Internet Speed 15540.59
KBps
15143 14947 14976 14892 14828
IP Addresses 1705695.00
IP
1692322 1697569 1703278 1699693 1703171
Mining Production 8.30
percent
-1.88 -1.32 -1.01 -0.82 -0.58
Steel Production 65.00
Thousand Tonnes
62.77 62.92 62.8 62.83 62.83
Competitiveness Index 4.46
Points
4.39 4.39 4.47 4.5 4.5
Competitiveness Rank 49.00
49 49 48 48 46
Ease of Doing Business 50.00
59 63 63 62 45
Electricity Production 3773.00
Gigawatt-hour
4003 3847 3822 3847 3841
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
41 40 41 41 41
Corruption Rank 71.00
74 74 73 73 73
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -23.80
Index Points
-23.8 -24.1 -22.9 -23.3 -20
Retail Sales MoM 0.20
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 4.90
percent
5.7 5.6 4.8 4.5 2.7
Consumer Credit 21155.66
Million BGL
21507 22019 22496 22944 26149
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.39 1.31 1.24 1.17 0.92
Households Debt To Income 32.71
percent
31.22 30.73 30.3 29.87 25.13
Consumer Spending 16271.60
BGN Million
15519 18948 15469 16857 20396
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 0.90
percent
-0.3 -0.1 1.1 2.3 3.5
Housing Index 120.65
Index Points
122 122 122 122 122
Housing Starts 1128.00
units
950 764 750 1092 779
Home Ownership Rate 82.90
percent
82.87 83.05 83.06 83.07 83.09
Building Permits 1476.00
Units
1394 1212 1128 1392 1152
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 9.75 10 9
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 32.40
percent
32.4 32.4 33.25 33 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.06
percent
20.07 20.07 19.8 19.71 21.05
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.34
percent
13.5 13.5 13.43 13.41 13.35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 2.21
mm
45.18 54.47 43.25 58.1 52.68
Temperature 1.95
celsius
19.66 6.28 1.54 17.07 10.75