Bulgaria’s retail trade rose 2 percent year-on-year in August 2019, easing from an upwardly revised 3.8 percent gain in the previous month. Sales slowed for non-food products (2 percent compared to 4.6 percent in July); food, beverages & tobacco (0.9 percent compared to 1.2 percent); and automotive fuel (3.6 percent compared to 6.9 percent). On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales dropped 0.3 percent, after increasing a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria averaged 6.92 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.60 percent in March of 2007 and a record low of -12.50 percent in January of 2010.
Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria is expected to be 5.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Bulgaria Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.