Week Ahead



Next week the Federal Reserve will be deciding on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a 25bps hike. Key economic data include: US final Q2 GDP growth, personal spending and income, PCE prices, durable goods orders and new home sales; UK final Q2 GDP growth, consumer confidence and CBI factory orders; Eurozone inflation and business survey; China NBS PMIs and Caixin Manufacturing PMI; and Japan unemployment, industrial output and retail trade.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors turn their attention to next week's FOMC meeting at which the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps. The Fed will also provide an update for its quarterly economic projections as focus is increasingly shifting to the outlook for next year. Policymakers will have in consideration labor-market data for August, which showed wages rising by the most since the end of the recession amid a strong labor market and a sustained expansion of economic activity. Regarding the economic calendar, the BEA is set to publish final estimates of second-quarter GDP growth, alongside personal spending and income, and PCE prices. In addition, durable goods orders and new home sales will also be in the spotlight.

Other important releases for America include Canada monthly GDP, Brazil unemployment and Mexico trade balance.

The UK will be publishing final estimates of second-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside current account. Preliminary figures from the ONS pointed to a pick up in Britain's economic growth boosted by a further increase in household consumption and a rebound in business investment. Furthermore, September's Gfk consumer confidence indicator is likely to show a deterioration in consumer morale amid persistent Brexit uncertainty; while the CBI is set to publish its gauge for factory orders.

Elsewhere in Europe, investors await the release of the Eurozone inflation and business survey. Consumer prices are expected to increase at a slightly faster pace, while morale is likely to soften across the bloc. In addition, Germany is set to publish unemployment figures.

In China the NBS will publish figures for manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, and Markit will release its Caixin Manufacturing PMI, providing an update on manufacturing and services activity during September. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include Japan unemployment, industrial output and retail trade, while central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines will meet to set monetary policy.

World leaders will meet at the United Nations General Assembly from September 25th. The official theme for 2018 is Making the United Nations relevant to all people: global leadership and shared responsibilities for peaceful, equitable and sustainable societies.



Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
9/21/2018 3:54:19 PM



 


Friday September 21 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
JP
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 52.9 52.5
03:45 AM
TH
Balance of Trade AUG $-0.59B $-0.52B
04:30 AM
NL
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 3.1% 2.8%
04:30 AM
NL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.8% 0.6%
06:45 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.2% 0.2%
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 52.5 53.5
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 54.3 55.4
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 56.5 55
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 53.7 55.9
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 53.3 54.6
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 54.7 54.4
08:30 AM
ES
Balance of Trade JUL €-3.25B €-2.45B
10:45 AM
SI
Unemployment Rate JUL 8% 7.9%
11:00 AM
GB
BoE Quarterly Bulletin
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.7% 1.6%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM AUG -0.1% 0.5%
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM JUL 0.3% -0.1% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 2.8% 3%
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash SEP 53.4 54.7
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 55.6 54.7
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 52.9 54.8
Sunday September 23 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
SA
OPEC Meeting
Monday September 24 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
07:00 AM
CH
Current Account Q2 CHF22.1B CHF17.4B ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate SEP 103.7 103.9 ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Current Conditions SEP 106.4 106.5 ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Expectations SEP 101 101.3 ®
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders SEP -1 7
11:30 AM
TR
Business Confidence SEP 89.6 96.4
11:30 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization SEP 76.2% 77.8%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index AUG 0.18 0.18 ®
01:00 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP 28.1 30.9
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday September 25 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
05:35 AM
JP
BoJ Kuroda Speech
06:00 AM
FI
Unemployment Rate AUG 6.8% 6.5%
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence SEP 107 110
07:30 AM
AT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 2.7% 3.7% ®
07:30 AM
AT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.6% 0.8%
08:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate AUG 5.8% 5.9%
08:00 AM
TW
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.69% 3.69%
08:40 AM
GB
BoE Vlieghe Speech
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL 5.9% 6.4% ®
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUL 0.3% 0.6% ®
01:30 PM
NG
Interest Rate Decision 14% 14%
02:00 PM
US
CB Consumer Confidence SEP 138.4 134.7 ®
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 21/SEP 2.903M 1.25M
US
UN General Assembly
Wednesday September 26 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
06:00 AM
NO
Unemployment Rate JUL 4% 3.9%
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence SEP 94 96 ®
08:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals AUG 39.402K 39.619K ®
09:00 AM
HR
Unemployment Rate AUG 8.5% 8.6%
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims AUG 10.8K 19.3K
11:00 AM
CZ
CNB Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.25%
01:00 PM
MX
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.5% 3.5%
01:00 PM
CH
SNB Quarterly Bulletin
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM AUG 3.5% -1.6% ®
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales AUG 0.629M 0.608M ®
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 21/SEP 1.852M -2.057M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 21/SEP 1.53M -1.719M
06:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2%
06:00 PM
US
FOMC Economic Projections
06:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
US
UN General Assembly
EA
ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday September 27 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:30 AM
NL
Business Confidence SEP 5.7 5.9
05:00 AM
TH
Unemployment Rate AUG 1% 1%
06:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence OCT 10.6 10.5
06:35 AM
JP
BoJ Kuroda Speech
07:00 AM
HU
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.7% 3.6%
07:20 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 5.75% 5.5%
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
08:00 AM
IT
Business Confidence SEP 105.7 105 ®
08:00 AM
IT
Consumer Confidence SEP 116 115.3 ®
08:00 AM
PH
Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 4%
08:50 AM
TW
Interest Rate Decision 1.375% 1.375%
09:00 AM
EA
Business Confidence SEP 1.21 1.21 ®
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Sentiment SEP 4.7 5.6 ®
09:00 AM