Week Ahead



Next week, important releases for the US include inflation rate, Michigan consumer sentiment and Federal monthly budget statement. Elsewhere: China trade, Caixin Services PMI and monetary indicators; UK monthly GDP figures and industrial production; and India inflation rate will also be in the spotlight.

Next week the US will publish inflation rate and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment. Consumer prices are expected to have increased at a slower pace in September and morale is likely to soften. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release producer and foreign trade prices; and the US Treasury its monthly statement of receipts and outlays of the federal government. Also, several Fed officials are due to speak at respective events next week, with investors looking for further clues on monetary policy. 

Other highlights for America include Canada housing data; Mexico inflation rate; and Brazil retail trade. On Sunday October 7th, Brazilians will go to the polls for general elections. Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right nationalist, continues to lead opinion polls.

In the UK investors will turn their attention to monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output and trade balance. Forecasts point to a softer GDP and construction growth but to a slightly stronger pace of expansion in industry. Elsewhere in Europe, traders will pay attention to minutes from the last ECB monetary policy meeting for further details on the next monetary policy steps. Eurozone industrial production and Germany trade balance will also be in the spotlight.

Markets in China will open on Monday after a week-long holiday, providing the first reaction to escalating conflicts between China and the US. Later last week, a report showed China secretly planted spy chips in products from Amazon and Apple and the US Vice President Mike Pence accused China of "malign" interference in the upcoming US midterm elections. On the economic data front, important releases include figures for foreign trade, Caixin Services PMI and monetary indicators. Export and import growth is set to slow in September amid an escalating trade dispute. 

Investors will also focus on India's inflation rate, which is expected to accelerate in September from a ten-month low due to persistent currency weakness and higher oil prices. Yet, the Reserve Bank of India left its interest rates steady and lowered inflation forecasts on Friday, mentioning benign food inflation. 

Other important releases for the Asia-Pacific region include Japan current account and machinery orders; Australia business and consumer confidence; and Singapore advance estimate of third-quarter GDP growth. Markets in Japan will be closed on Monday for the Health and Sports Day holiday.

Annual meetings of the IMF/World Bank will also take place next week in Bali, Indonesia.




Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
10/6/2018 7:18:30 AM



 


Friday October 05 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:00 AM
AU
HIA New Home Sales MoM AUG -2.9% -3.1%
01:00 AM
PH
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 6.7% 6.4%
01:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.3% 0%
04:00 AM
MY
Balance of Trade AUG MYR1.6B MYR8.3B
05:00 AM
JP
Coincident Index Prel AUG 117.5 116.1 ®
05:00 AM
JP
Leading Economic Index Prel AUG 104.4 103.9 ®
06:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM AUG 2% -0.9%
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM AUG 0.3% 0.2%
06:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade AUG €-5.6B €-3.4B ®
07:15 AM
CH
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 1% 1.2%
08:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.7% 0% ®
09:00 AM
IN
RBI Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 4.53% 4.19%
12:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate SEP 5.9% 6%
12:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade AUG C$0.53B C$-0.19B ®
12:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate SEP 65.4% 65.3%
12:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg SEP 80.2K -92K
12:30 PM
CA
Employment Change SEP 63.3K -51.6K
12:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg SEP -16.9K 40.4K
12:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade AUG $-53.2B $-50B ®
12:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls SEP 134K 270K ®
12:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate SEP 3.7% 3.9%
12:30 PM
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM SEP 0.3% 0.3% ®
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves SEP $459.2B $460.6B
01:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 3.4% 3.1%
04:30 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
Sunday October 07 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
BR
General Elections
Monday October 08 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI SEP 53.1 51.5
05:45 AM
CH
Unemployment Rate SEP 2.4% 2.4%
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM AUG -0.3% -1.3% ®
07:00 AM
CZ
Unemployment Rate SEP 3% 3.1%
01:00 PM
IL
Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account AUG ¥1.838T ¥2.010T
Tuesday October 09 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence SEP 6 5 ®
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade AUG €17.2B €16.5B
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts SEP 189K 200K ®
01:00 PM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 5.02% 4.9%
02:00 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism OCT 57.8 55.7
02:35 PM
GB
BoE Broadbent Speech
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index OCT 101.5 100.5
11:30 PM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change OCT 1% -3%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM AUG 6.8% 11%
Wednesday October 10 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:00 AM
PH
Balance of Trade AUG $-3513.0M $-3546M
01:15 AM
US
Fed Williams Speech
02:10 AM
AU
RBA Coombs Speech
02:35 AM
US
Fed Williams Speech
06:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 4.1% 4%
06:00 AM
RO
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 1.4% 0.1%
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM AUG 0.3% 0.8% ®
08:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM AUG 1.7% -1.6% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production MoM AUG -0.2% 0% ®
08:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg AUG 0.7% 0.7% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY AUG 1.3% 1.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade AUG £-1.274B £-0.572B ®
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY AUG 1.3% 1% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM AUG 0.2% 0.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
GDP MoM AUG 0% 0.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY AUG 0.3% 2.8% ®
09:00 AM
GB
BoE Haldane Speech
12:30 PM
CA
Building Permits MoM AUG 0.4% -1.5% ®
12:30 PM
US
Core PPI MoM SEP 0.2% -0.1%
12:30 PM
US
PPI MoM SEP 0.2% -0.1%
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM AUG 1% 0.6%
04:15 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 5/OCT 9.75M 0.907M
10:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
10:30 PM
AU
RBA Ellis Speech
EA
ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday October 11 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:30 AM
NL
Balance of Trade AUG €3.46B €4.35B ®
07:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY SEP 2.5% 2.2%
07:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM SEP 0.5% -0.2%
09:00 AM
GR
Unemployment Rate JUL 19% 19.1%
10:00 AM
IE
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 0.9% 0.7%
10:00 AM
IL
Unemployment Rate AUG 4% 4.1% ®
10:45 AM