Week Ahead


Next week, important releases for the US include the FOMC minutes, housing data, retail sales, and industrial production. Elsewhere, China GDP growth; Japan inflation and trade data; and UK unemployment, earnings, inflation and retail sales will also be in the spotlight.

It will be a busy week in the US as investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes release for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps from the Fed. The Fed last raised its target rate for the fed funds rate by 25bps to 2%-2.25% on September 26th as widely expected. In the weeks following the decision, remarks from Fed Chair Powell and strong economic data for the US (including a near 49-year low unemployment rate, upward revisions to the jobs report and a record high ISM non manufacturing PMI) prompted fears that the Fed would tighten further than anticipated, leading to a global sell-off in bonds and stocks, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note reaching 7-year highs and Wall Street recording its worst day in eight months. Yet, later last week, inflation for September came in below market expectations, slightly alleviating investors nerves as Treasury yields retreated. 

Other important releases for the US include housing data (building permits, housing starts and existing home sales), with markets expecting a mixed result; retail sales which are seen rising slightly faster as consumer spending remains strong; industrial production, expected to rise slightly less than in the previous month; NAHB housing market index; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; JOLTS job openings; and business inventories. 

The third-quarter earnings season started last Friday with reports from big banks and will continue next week. Analysts anticipate a near 20 percent year-on-year rise in earnings for the S&P 500 amid strong economic prospects in the US, a cut in corporate tax and higher oil prices. 

Several Fed officials are also due to speak at respective events. 

China will publish GDP figures for Q3, with markets anticipating a slowdown to a 6.6 percent growth from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter as the industrial sector possibly underperformed due to trade conflicts with the US. That would be the first slowdown in a year although growth would remain above the government's target of 6.5 percent. Other data include: consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. 

Japan will publish inflation and trade data, with both exports and imports seen slowing; India WPI inflation; and Australia employment figures and RBA meeting minutes will also be in the spotlight. 

It will be an important week for Brexit. The European Council will meet to review the latest developments in the Brexit negotiations and the Summit is seen as the last chance to reach a proper deal although some issues such as the Irish border still need to be defined. On the economic data front for the UK: unemployment and earnings growth are seen steady; inflation rate is expected to slow down; and retail sales to contract. 

Other important data in Europe include: Euro Area final inflation figures and construction output; and Germany ZEW sentiment. Italy remains a concern for investors after the government decided to increase public spending. Italy's 2019 budget is expected to be approved by the cabinet on Monday. 




Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
10/13/2018 8:01:11 AM



 


Friday October 12 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q3 2.6% 3.9% ®
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q3 4.7% 0.6% ®
12:30 AM
AU
Investment Lending for Homes AUG -1.1% -1.3%
12:30 AM
AU
Home Loans MoM AUG -2.1% 0.4%
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Financial Stability Review
02:30 AM
CN
Balance of Trade SEP $31.69B $27.89B ®
02:30 AM
CN
Exports YoY SEP 14.5% 9.8%
02:30 AM
CN
Imports YoY SEP 14.3% 19.9% ®
04:30 AM
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM AUG 0.5% 0.1%
06:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final SEP 2.3% 2%
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY AUG 0.9% 0.3% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM AUG 1% -0.7% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY AUG 4.3% 6.5% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 3.77% 3.69%
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY AUG 4.6% 7%
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM SEP 0% -0.2% ®
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM SEP 0.5% -0.4% ®
01:00 PM
RU
Balance of Trade AUG $15.797B $13.402B
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel OCT 99 100.1
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel OCT 89.1 90.5
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel OCT 2.3% 2.5%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel OCT 2.8% 2.7%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel OCT 114.4 115.2
Monday October 15 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade SEP $0.23B $-0.94B ®
06:30 AM
IN
WPI Inflation YoY SEP 5.13% 4.53%
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate JUL 10.8% 10.2%
10:35 AM
IN
Balance of Trade SEP $-13.98B $-17.39B
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM SEP -0.1% 0.2% ®
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM SEP 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index OCT 21.10 19
02:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM AUG 0.5% 0.7% ®
02:30 PM
CA
BoC Business Outlook Survey
03:30 PM
IL
Inflation Rate MoM SEP 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement SEP $119B $-214B
Tuesday October 16 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM SEP 0.7% 0.7%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY SEP 3.6% 4.1%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 2.5% 2.3%
07:30 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 11.28% 11.23%
08:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY SEP 3.2% 3.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus AUG 2.7% 2.6%
08:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change SEP 18.5K 14.2K ®
08:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate AUG 4% 4%
08:30 AM
GB
Employment Change JUL -5K 3K
09:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade AUG €11.7B €17.6B
09:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT -19.4 -7.2
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Current Conditions OCT 70.1 76
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT -24.7 -10.6
10:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade AUG €2.564B €5.659B ®
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY SEP 5.1% 4.9%
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM SEP 0.3% 0.4%
02:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings AUG 7.136M 7.077M ®
02:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index OCT 68 67
08:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows AUG $131.8B $66.7B ®
08:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment AUG $63.1B $18.9B
08:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows AUG $108.2B $42.7B ®
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 12/OCT -2.1M 9.75M
Wednesday October 17 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 2.4% 2.7%
08:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP 1.9% 2.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM SEP 0.1% 0.7%
08:30 AM
GB
BoE FPC Minutes
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final SEP 2.1% 2%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM SEP 0.5% 0.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Construction Output YoY AUG 2.5% 2.2% ®
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final SEP 0.9% 0.9% ®
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits SEP 1.241M 1.249M ®
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM SEP -0.6% -5.7%
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts SEP 1.201M 1.268M ®
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM SEP -5.3% 7.1% ®
01:00 PM
RU
Retail Sales YoY SEP 2.3% 2.8%
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate SEP 4.5% 4.6%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 12/OCT -2.016M 0.951M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 12/OCT 6.49M 5.987M
06:00 PM
US
FOMC Minutes
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade SEP ¥140B ¥-438B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY SEP -1.2% 6.6% ®
Thursday October 18 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
Employment Change SEP 5.6K 44.6K ®
12:30 AM
AU
Unemployment Rate SEP 5% 5.3%
12:30 AM
AU
Full Time Employment Chg SEP 20.3K 35.2K ®
01:00 AM
KR
Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
04:30 AM
NL
Unemployment Rate SEP 3.7% 3.9%
06:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade SEP CHF1.45B CHF1.36B ®
07:00 AM
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY SEP 2.9% 2.3%
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM SEP -0.8% 0.5% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY SEP 3.2% 3.6% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY SEP 3% 3.4% ®
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM SEP -0.8% 0.4% ®
12:30 PM
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index OCT 22.2 22.9
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 1.2% 1.3%
11:30 PM
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP 1% 0.9%
Friday October 19 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:00 AM
CN
NBS Press Conference
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY SEP 5.4% 5.3%
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY SEP 5.8% 6.1%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY SEP 9.2% 9%
02:00 AM
CN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 6.5% 6.7%
02:00 AM
CN
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 1.6% 1.8%
04:30 AM
NL